The US-Iran Conflict: Why Kharg Island was bombed – and what happens now

It's starting to look like a new phase in the conflict between the US and Iran. Late on Friday night NZ time, the US launched strikes on the strategically vital oil hub of Kharg Island, situated off Iran's coast in the Persian Gulf. With the smoke still hanging heavy over the area, a picture is emerging of a conflict that's rapidly accelerating – and one where no one really knows how it will end.

Kharg Island: Iran's oil jugular in the crosshairs

President Donald Trump confirmed the strikes himself on Truth Social, stating they had hit "all military targets" on Kharg Island. The island is absolutely critical to Iran's economy – around 90 percent of all Iranian crude oil for export passes through here. Trump was careful to point out they'd deliberately chosen not to bomb the oil infrastructure itself, at least not yet. But the threat hangs in the air: if anyone tries to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, then "I will immediately reconsider that decision".

For those of us who've followed the Middle East conflict for years, this is a classic power play. The US is showing it can strike at the very heart of Iran's export revenue at any time. At the same time, it's a balancing act. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been dead since earlier in March, killed in an Israeli-American attack, and the country has promised retaliation. The question isn't whether Iran will respond, but how.

The Backstory: From the Twelve-Day War to today's stalemate

This isn't an isolated incident. We're at a stage that many experts, including those right here at home from the Swedish Defence Research Agency, have been warning about for a long time. It really kicked off in June 2025 with what's already being called the Twelve-Day War. Israel attacked Iran's nuclear technology program on June 13, and in the final phase, the US stepped in on Israel's side, bombing three major nuclear facilities, including Fordow, which is embedded in a mountain.

Since then, it's been a low-intensity conflict with sporadic attacks. But in late February this year, the US ramped things up again. First, they took out Iran's air defence systems, then their missile and drone capabilities. And now, most recently, the strike on Kharg. It's a systematic dismantling of Iran's military muscle.

How Iran might respond – and why it's risky

The short-term threat right now centres on US soldiers and installations in the region. Iran has both the capability and the will to hit back. Consider this:

• The US has around 40,000 soldiers stationed across the Middle East – everywhere from Iraq and Kuwait to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. They're all potential targets.
• The Strait of Hormuz is the bottleneck through which a huge chunk of the world's oil passes. The oil price is already shaky. If Iran tries to block the strait, or attack tankers, then we're talking about a global economic shock.
• Allied militias, like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq, could be activated to strike US targets. Over the weekend, an attack on the US embassy in Baghdad was already reported.

At the same time, Iran is weakened. Their air defence is largely gone, and their ability to harm Israel with missiles has proven limited – most were shot down by air defences during the Twelve-Day War. This leads many analysts to expect an asymmetric response. Maybe not tomorrow, but further down the track. "Once the dust settles, they'll fall back on the tactics that have served them best over the years: terrorism and asymmetric warfare," as one US expert put it the other day.

What happens now? Geopolitics and surprising alliances

Back here in New Zealand, we're watching this unfold from a distance, but the global implications are huge. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the government will be closely monitoring the situation, particularly the impact on global oil prices and security. On the world stage, things are moving. China, which has been Iran's key ally and biggest oil customer, has so far only issued diplomatic condemnations. No military support has appeared. Some analysts reckon this is exactly what the US wants to achieve. By crippling Iran, they're showing the whole world, not least China's other allies like Cuba or Venezuela, that the superpower in Beijing won't come to the rescue when it really counts. This would allow the US to calmly shift its military focus to the Pacific and the contest with China.

The war with Iran is therefore much more than just a war with Iran. It's a piece on a much larger global chessboard. And as history teaches us, these kinds of games usually have unintended consequences. The only question is what they'll be this time around.