The US-Iran Conflict: Why Kharg Island Was Bombed – And What Happens Now

We are witnessing what looks like a new phase in the conflict between the US and Iran. Late on Friday evening Swedish time, the US launched attacks on the strategically vital oil hub of Kharg Island, situated off Iran's coast in the Persian Gulf. As the smoke still billows over the area, a picture is emerging of a conflict that is rapidly escalating – with no clear end in sight.

Kharg Island: The Beating Heart of Iran's Oil

President Donald Trump himself confirmed the strikes on Truth Social, stating they had hit "all military targets" on Kharg Island. The island is absolutely critical to Iran's economy – an estimated 90 percent of all Iranian crude oil for export passes through here. Trump was careful to point out that they deliberately chose not to bomb the oil infrastructure itself, at least not yet. But the threat hangs in the air: if anyone tries to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, then "I will immediately reconsider that decision."

For those of us who have followed the Middle East conflict for years, this is a classic move. The US is demonstrating that it can strike at the heart of Iran's export revenues at any time. At the same time, it's a delicate balancing act. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead since earlier in March, killed in an Israeli-American attack, and the country has vowed retaliation. The question isn't if Iran will respond, but how.

The Backstory: From the Twelve-Day War to Today's Stalemate

This isn't an isolated incident. We are in a phase that many experts, including those at Sweden's Total Defence Research Institute, have been warning about for a long time. It all really kicked off in June 2025 with what is now being called the Twelve-Day War. Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program on June 13, and in the final stage, the US stepped in on Israel's side, bombing three major nuclear facilities, including Fordow, which is embedded in a mountain.

Since then, it's been a low-intensity conflict with sporadic attacks. But at the end of February this year, the US escalated again. First, they took out Iran's air defence systems, then their missile and drone capabilities. And now, the attack on Kharg. It's a systematic dismantling of Iran's military power.

How Iran Could Strike Back – And Why It's Dangerous

The immediate threat right now revolves around American soldiers and installations in the region. Iran has both the capability and the will to hit back. Here's the lowdown:

• The US has around 40,000 soldiers stationed across the Middle East – everywhere from Iraq and Kuwait to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. They are all potential targets.
• The Strait of Hormuz is the choke point through which a huge chunk of the world's oil passes. Oil prices are already shaky. If Iran tries to block the strait, or attacks tankers, we are talking about a global economic shock.
• Allied militias, like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq, could be activated to strike US targets. Over the weekend, an attack on the US embassy in Baghdad was already reported.

At the same time, Iran is weakened. Their air defence is largely gone, and their ability to harm Israel with missiles has proven limited – most were shot down by air defences during the Twelve-Day War itself. This leads many analysts to expect an asymmetric response. Maybe not tomorrow, but down the line. "Once the dust settles, they will fall back on the tactics that have served them best over the years: terrorism and asymmetric warfare," as one US expert put it the other day.

What Happens Now? High-Stakes Politics and Unexpected Alliances

Back home in Sweden, both Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and opposition leader Magdalena Andersson are closely monitoring the situation. In Sunday's Agenda program, both commented on the situation. Kristersson was cautiously open to the US's line, even though it stretches international law. "The jury is still out," he said. "If this succeeds, then it's permissible. If this creates total chaos in the Middle East, then there are huge risks involved." Andersson was more critical, arguing that the US should have gone through the UN Security Council.

On the international stage, things are happening. China, which has been Iran's most important ally and biggest oil customer, has so far only issued diplomatic condemnations. No military support has been seen. Some analysts believe this is exactly what the US wants to achieve. By crippling Iran, they show the whole world, not least China's other allies like Cuba or Venezuela, that the superpower in Beijing won't come to the rescue when it really counts. This would allow the US to calmly shift its military focus to the Pacific and the rivalry with China.

So, the war with Iran is about much more than just Iran. It's a piece on a much larger global chessboard. And as history teaches us, such games often have unintended consequences. The only question is what they will be this time around.