US-Iran War: Why the Kharg Island Oil Hub Was Bombed and What’s Next

We might be looking at a new phase in the war between the US and Iran. Late Friday night, Singapore time, the US struck the strategically vital oil island of Kharg, located off Iran's coast in the Persian Gulf. As the smoke still billows thick over the area, a picture is emerging of a conflict that is accelerating rapidly – and no one really knows where it ends.

Kharg Island: Iran's Oil Heart in the Crosshairs

President Donald Trump confirmed the attacks himself on Truth Social, stating they had hit "all military targets" on Kharg Island. The island is absolutely central to Iran's economy – about 90 percent of all Iranian crude oil for export passes through here. Trump was careful to point out that they deliberately chose not to bomb the actual oil infrastructure, at least not yet. But the threat hangs in the air: if anyone tries to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, then "I will immediately reconsider that decision."

For those of us who have followed the Middle East conflict for years, this is a classic show of force. The US is demonstrating it can strike at the heart of Iran's export revenues anytime. At the same time, it's a tightrope act. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead since earlier in March, killed in an Israeli-American attack, and the country has vowed retaliation. The question isn't if Iran will respond, but how.

The Background: From the Twelve-Day War to Today's Stalemate

This isn't an isolated event. We're in a phase that many experts, including those back home at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, have been warning about for a long time. It all really started in June 2025 with what's already being called the Twelve-Day War. Israel attacked Iran's nuclear technology program on June 13, and in the final stage, the US stepped in on Israel's side, bombing three major nuclear facilities, including Fordow, which is buried inside a mountain.

Since then, it's been a low-intensity war with sporadic attacks. But at the end of February this year, the US escalated again. First, they took out Iran's air defence, then their missile and drone capabilities. And now, most recently, the attack on Kharg. It's a systematic dismantling of Iran's military muscle.

How Iran Could Strike Back – And Why It's Dangerous

The immediate short-term threat right now involves US soldiers and installations in the region. Iran has both the capability and the will to hit back. Consider this:

• The US has about 40,000 soldiers stationed across the Middle East – everywhere from Iraq and Kuwait to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. All are potential targets.
• The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint through which a huge chunk of the world's oil is shipped. Oil prices are already shaky. If Iran tries to block the strait, or attacks tankers, then we're talking about a global economic shock.
• Allied militias, like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq, could be activated to strike US targets. Over the weekend, an attack on the US embassy in Baghdad was already reported.

At the same time, Iran is weakened. Their air defence is largely gone, and their ability to harm Israel with missiles has proven limited – most were shot down by air defences during the Twelve-Day War. This leads many analysts to expect an asymmetric response. Maybe not tomorrow, but down the road. "Once the dust settles, they'll fall back on the tactics that have served them best over the years: terrorism and asymmetric warfare," as one US expert put it the other day.

What Happens Now? Big Power Politics and Surprising Alliances

Back here in Singapore, we're watching the developments closely, just like leaders globally. On the international stage, things are happening. China, which has been Iran's most important ally and biggest oil customer, has so far only issued diplomatic condemnations. No military support has been seen. Some analysts suggest this is exactly what the US wants to achieve. By crippling Iran, they send a message to the entire world, not least to China's other allies like Cuba or Venezuela, that the big power in Beijing won't come to the rescue when it really counts. This would allow the US to calmly shift its military focus to the Pacific and the contest with China.

The war with Iran is therefore much more than a war with Iran. It's a piece in a much larger global game. And as history teaches us, such games often have unintended consequences. The only question is what they'll be this time.