The Conflict Between the U.S. and Iran: Why the Kharg Island Bombing Happened and What Comes Next

It's starting to feel like a new phase in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Late Friday evening, Swedish time, the U.S. launched attacks on the strategically vital oil hub of Kharg Island, located off Iran's coast in the Persian Gulf. As the smoke still hangs thick over the area, a picture is emerging of a conflict that is rapidly escalating—and one where no one really knows how it will end.

Kharg Island: The Beating Heart of Iran's Oil Industry

President Donald Trump confirmed the strikes himself on Truth Social, stating they had hit "all military targets" on Kharg Island. The island is absolutely central to Iran's economy—roughly 90 percent of all Iranian crude oil for export passes through here. Trump was careful to point out they deliberately chose not to bomb the oil infrastructure itself, at least not yet. But the threat hangs in the air: if anyone tries to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, then "I will immediately reconsider that decision."

For those of us who have followed the Middle East conflict for years, this is a classic move. The U.S. is showing it can strike at the heart of Iran's export revenues whenever it wants. At the same time, it's a balancing act. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been dead since earlier in March, killed in an Israeli-American attack, and the country has promised retaliation. The question isn't if Iran will respond, but how.

The Backstory: From the Twelve-Day War to Today's Stalemate

This isn't an isolated incident. We're in a phase that many experts, including those right here at home from the Swedish Defence Research Agency, have been warning about for a long time. It all really began in June 2025 with what's already being called the Twelve-Day War. Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program on June 13th, and in the final stages, the U.S. stepped in on Israel's side, bombing three major nuclear facilities, including Fordow, which is buried inside a mountain.

Since then, it's been a low-intensity conflict with sporadic attacks. But in late February of this year, the U.S. escalated again. First, they took out Iran's air defense systems, then their missile and drone capabilities. And now, most recently, the attack on Kharg. It's a systematic dismantling of Iran's military power.

How Iran Could Respond – and Why It's Dangerous

The immediate short-term threat right now involves American soldiers and installations in the region. Iran has both the capability and the will to strike back. Consider this:

• The U.S. has approximately 40,000 troops stationed across the Middle East – everywhere from Iraq and Kuwait to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. They're all potential targets.
• The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint through which a huge portion of the world's oil passes. Oil prices are already shaky. If Iran tries to block the strait, or attack tankers, then we're talking about a global economic shock.
• Allied militias, like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq, could be activated to hit American targets. Over the weekend, an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was already reported.

At the same time, Iran is weakened. Their air defense is largely gone, and their ability to harm Israel with missiles has proven limited – most were shot down by air defenses during the Twelve-Day War. This leads many analysts to expect an asymmetric response. Maybe not tomorrow, but further down the line. "Once the smoke clears, they'll resort to the tactics that have served them best over the years: terrorism and asymmetric warfare," as one U.S. expert put it the other day.

What Happens Now? Geopolitics and Surprising Alliances

Back here in Sweden, both Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (Moderate Party) and Opposition Leader Magdalena Andersson (Social Democrats) are closely watching developments. On Sunday's Agenda political program, both commented on the situation. Kristersson was cautiously open to the U.S. line, even though it stretches international law. "The jury is still out," he said. "That is, if this succeeds, then it might be seen as permissible. If this creates total chaos in the Middle East, then there are major risks involved." Andersson was more critical, arguing the U.S. should have gone through the UN Security Council.

On the international stage, things are happening. China, which has been Iran's most important ally and biggest oil customer, has so far only issued diplomatic condemnations. No military support has appeared. Some analysts suggest this is exactly what the U.S. wants to achieve. By crippling Iran, they demonstrate to the entire world, not least to China's other allies like Cuba or Venezuela, that the superpower in Beijing won't come to the rescue when it really counts. That would allow the U.S. to calmly shift its military focus to the Pacific region and the competition with China.

The war with Iran is therefore much more than a war with Iran. It's one piece on a much larger global chessboard. And as history teaches us, games like these often have unintended consequences. The only question is what they'll be this time around.