The US-Iran War: Why the Kharg Island Attack Matters – and What Happens Next

We may be entering a new phase in the war between the U.S. and Iran. Late Friday evening, Swedish time, the U.S. launched attacks on the strategically vital oil hub of Kharg Island, located off Iran's coast in the Persian Gulf. As the smoke still hangs heavy over the area, a picture is emerging of a conflict rapidly accelerating – with no clear end in sight.

Kharg Island: Iran's Oil Lifeline in the Crosshairs

President Donald Trump confirmed the strikes on Truth Social, stating they had hit "all military targets" on Kharg Island. The island is absolutely central to Iran's economy – roughly 90 percent of all Iranian crude oil exports pass through it. Trump was careful to point out that they deliberately chose not to bomb the oil infrastructure itself, at least not yet. But the threat is palpable: if anyone tries to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, then "I will immediately reconsider that decision."

For those of us who have followed the Middle East conflict for years, this is a classic flex. The U.S. is demonstrating it can strike at the very heart of Iran's export revenues at any time. At the same time, it's a tightrope walk. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been dead since earlier in March, killed in a joint Israeli-American attack, and the country has vowed retaliation. The question isn't if Iran will respond, but how.

Background: From the Twelve-Day War to Today's Stalemate

This isn't an isolated incident. We're at a stage that many experts, including those right here at home at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, have been warning about for a long time. It all really began in June 2025 with what's already being called the Twelve-Day War. Israel attacked Iran's nuclear program on June 13th, and in the final stages, the U.S. stepped in on Israel's side, bombing three major nuclear facilities, including Fordow, which is buried inside a mountain.

Since then, it's been a low-intensity war with sporadic attacks. But in late February of this year, the U.S. escalated again. First, they took out Iran's air defense systems, then their missile and drone capabilities. And now, the attack on Kharg. It's a systematic dismantling of Iran's military power.

How Iran Could Strike Back – And Why It's Dangerous

The short-term threat right now focuses on American soldiers and installations in the region. Iran has both the capability and the will to hit back. Consider this:

• The U.S. has roughly 40,000 troops stationed across the Middle East – everywhere from Iraq and Kuwait to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. All are potential targets.
• The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint through which a huge portion of the world's oil travels. Oil prices are already shaky. If Iran tries to block the strait, or attack tankers, we're talking about a global economic shock.
• Allied militias, like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq, could be activated to strike American targets. Over the weekend, an attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad was already reported.

At the same time, Iran is weakened. Their air defense is largely gone, and their ability to harm Israel with missiles proved limited – most were shot down by air defenses during the Twelve-Day War. This leads many analysts to expect an asymmetric response. Maybe not tomorrow, but down the road. "Once the dust settles, they'll fall back on the tactics that have served them best over the years: terrorism and asymmetric warfare," as one U.S. expert put it recently.

What Happens Now? High-Stakes Politics and Surprising Alliances

Back here in Sweden, both Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and opposition leader Magdalena Andersson are closely monitoring the situation. On Sunday's Agenda program, both commented on the situation. Kristersson was cautiously open to the U.S. approach, even though it stretches international law. "The jury is still out," he said. "Meaning, if this succeeds, it will be seen as permissible. If this creates total chaos in the Middle East, then it comes with huge risks." Andersson was more critical, arguing the U.S. should have gone through the UN Security Council.

On the international stage, things are moving. China, which has been Iran's key ally and biggest oil customer, has so far only issued diplomatic condemnations. No military support has materialized. Some analysts suggest this is exactly what the U.S. wants to achieve. By crippling Iran, they demonstrate to the entire world, and especially to China's other allies like Cuba or Venezuela, that the power in Beijing won't come to their rescue when it really counts. That allows the U.S. to calmly shift its military focus to the Pacific and the rivalry with China.

The war with Iran is therefore much more than just a war with Iran. It's a piece on a much larger global chessboard. And as history teaches us, such games often have unintended consequences. The only question is what they will be this time.