Iran-USA Conflict: A Predictable Escalation – How Tehran Is Drawing the Gulf States Into War

Imagine sitting in a café in Sharm El-Sheikh or Dubai, looking out at the sea. Just a few weeks ago, the view would have been of peaceful tankers and the clear blue of the Gulf. Today? The Strait of Hormuz has become a powder keg, and everyone is wondering where the next Iranian drone will strike. The Iran-USA conflict has reached a new, dangerously volatile stage. While US President Donald Trump seriously proclaims that the war is as good as won, emotions in the region are boiling over – and Washington's allies are left in the lurch.

Trump's "Victory" and the Reality on the Ground

"There's practically nothing left to strike," Trump reportedly told a US intelligence agency. A bold claim, considering the US itself admits to having bombed over 5,000 targets in Iran. Sure, Tehran's military infrastructure has taken a massive hit. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, his son Mojtaba has already been named successor and is said to be injured and holed up in a secret location. But who seriously believes a country like Iran will just give up simply because the visible command centres are in ruins?

The Revolutionary Guard has only one answer to Trump's victory cries: "We are the ones who decide when this war ends." And they're backing up their words with action. While Washington mulls over exit strategies, the Guard has long since launched the second phase. A phase you could safely call a guide to the Iran-USA conflict in asymmetric warfare.

The "Horizontal" Front: Everyone Pays the Price

Here's the real kicker, something the Western headquarters have seemingly underestimated. Tehran can't defeat the US on the battlefield – every kid there knows that. So, they shift the fight. They widen it. They target the soft underbelly. Experts call this "horizontal escalation". And it's working scarily well right now. The US Embassy in Riyadh? Grazed by a drone. The Al-Udeid US base in Qatar? Hit by a ballistic missile. The consulate in Dubai? In flames.

This isn't the wild thrashing of a dying regime, as Trump might want you to believe. This is a predictable strategy. By attacking not just Israel, but also specifically targeting the infrastructure of the Gulf States, Iran is holding exactly those countries accountable on whose soil the American attacks are launched. The message is crystal clear: You want to fight your war against us from your clean, safe territory? Then you have to face the consequences too.

Allies Left in the Lurch? Resentment Grows in the Gulf

And this is precisely where the alliance is starting to creak badly. Diplomats from the region speak off the record about a "fatal underestimation" by the US of Iran's ability to respond. For weeks, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha lobbied to dissuade Trump from a military strike. In vain. And now? Now fires are breaking out everywhere, and the air defence systems of the wealthy sheikhdoms – not fully integrated – are slowly but surely running out of ammunition.

• Saudi Arabia: Finds itself forced to defend its capital from attacks.
• UAE: Counting the damage at its Dubai consulate.
• Qatar: Its residents wondering if the giant US base is more of a blessing or a curse.
• Bahrain: Has already suffered a hit to a vital desalination plant.

A diplomat from a Gulf state put it bluntly in a conversation with a capital-city media outlet: "If Iran attacks all Gulf states, it loses the last possible channels for dialogue." The desperation is palpable. They feel like victims of an escalation they never wanted. From the locals' perspective, the review of the Iran-USA conflict is damning – for both sides.

The Invisible Battle for World Opinion

Meanwhile, an absurd theatre is playing out in New York. The UN Security Council meets, with positions entrenched. The Iranian ambassador accuses the US of war crimes; his US counterpart cites Article 51 of the UN Charter and the right to self-defence. And then, of all people, Melania Trump chairs a council session on children's rights – an irony of history that Tehran's representative naturally immediately brands as "shameful and hypocritical," all while behind the scenes, talk turns to a girls' school reportedly hit during the strikes.

All of this feeds an old distrust in the Arab world. There's a fear that Washington will pull the plug after a symbolic success, leaving the region in chaos. "Everything is destroyed, the regime is still there – and the Americans just leave," fears one diplomat. The Saudis and Emiratis are already eyeing the East. In the Security Council, China and Russia seize every opportunity to expose the US. They sense their chance to sustainably weaken American influence in the region.

What's Next for the Conflict?

The truth is: No one knows how to get out of this mess. Trump is under domestic pressure because of rising petrol prices. So he releases strategic oil reserves and tries to put a positive spin on the war. In Israel, Defence Minister Katz insists on "fighting without time limits." And the Iranian leadership, led by a traumatised and vengeful new leader, seems to have no interest in de-escalation. On the contrary: They openly threaten to mine the Strait of Hormuz and attack the region's entire energy infrastructure. A barrel of oil for $200? That scenario is no longer unrealistic.

For us observers here in the region, only one thing remains: wait and see, and take a deep breath. The situation is more confusing and dangerous than ever. The only thing that's clear is this: Whoever still believes this war is a simple settling of scores between Washington and Tehran simply doesn't understand how to read this conflict. It's a war that could write the textbook on how to use the Iran-USA conflict as a case study for hybrid threats. And the Gulf powder keg is on the verge of setting the whole world ablaze.