Iran-US Conflict: A Predictable Escalation – How Tehran Is Drawing the Gulf States Into War

Imagine sitting at a café in Sharm El-Sheikh or Dubai, looking out at the sea. Just a few weeks ago, the view would have been of peaceful tankers and the clear blue of the Gulf. Today? The Strait of Hormuz has become a powder keg, and everyone is left wondering where the next Iranian drone will strike. The Iran US conflict has reached a new, dangerously explosive level. While US President Donald Trump seriously proclaims that the war is as good as won, emotions in the region are boiling over – and Washington's allies are left in the lurch.

Trump's "Victory" and the Reality on the Ground

"There's practically nothing left to strike," Trump reportedly told a US intelligence agency. A bold claim, considering the US itself admits to having bombed over 5,000 targets in Iran. Sure, Tehran's military infrastructure has taken a massive hit. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, his son Mojtaba has already been named successor and is said to be injured and holed up in a secret location. But who seriously believes a country like Iran will just give up simply because the visible command centers are in ruins?

The Revolutionary Guards have only one answer to Trump's victory cheers: "We are the ones who decide when the war ends." And they are backing up their words with actions. While Washington mulls over exit strategies, the Guards have long since launched the second phase. A phase you could safely call a Iran US conflict guide to asymmetric warfare.

The "Horizontal" Front: Everyone Pays the Price

Here's the real kicker, something the Western headquarters seem to have tragically underestimated. Tehran can't defeat the US on the battlefield – every kid there knows that. So they're shifting the fight. Broadening it. Targeting the soft underbelly. Experts call this "horizontal escalation." And it's working frighteningly well right now. The US Embassy in Riyadh? Grazed by a drone. Al-Udeid US base in Qatar? Hit by a ballistic missile. The consulate in Dubai? In flames.

This isn't the wild thrashing of a dying regime, as Trump might want you to believe. This is a strategy that was telegraphed in advance. By attacking not just Israel, but also specifically targeting the infrastructure of the Gulf States, Iran is holding those very countries responsible on whose soil the American attacks are launched. The message is crystal clear: You want to wage war against us from your clean, safe territory? Then you have to deal with the consequences.

Allies Left in the Lurch? Resentment Grows in the Gulf

And this is precisely where the alliance is starting to crack. Diplomats from the region are privately reporting a "fatal underestimation" by the US of Iran's capacity to respond. For weeks, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha had lobbied Trump to back down from a military strike. In vain. And now? Now fires are breaking out everywhere, and the air defense systems of the wealthy sheikhdoms – which aren't fully integrated – are slowly but surely running out of ammunition.

• Saudi Arabia: Finds itself forced to defend its capital from attacks.
• UAE: Counting the costs of the damage to the Dubai consulate.
• Qatar: Its residents are wondering if the massive US base is more of a blessing or a curse.
• Bahrain: Has already had to absorb a strike on a vital desalination plant.

A diplomat from a Gulf state summed it up to a major media outlet: "If Iran attacks all the Gulf states, it loses the last possible channels for dialogue." The desperation is palpable. They feel like victims of an escalation they never wanted. From the locals' perspective, the Iran US conflict review is damning – for both sides.

The Invisible Battle for World Opinion

Meanwhile, an absurd theater is playing out in New York. The UN Security Council is meeting, positions are entrenched. The Iranian ambassador accuses the US of war crimes; his US counterpart invokes Article 51 of the UN Charter and the right to self-defense. And then, of all people, Melania Trump chairs a Council session on children's rights – an irony of history that Tehran's representative immediately denounces as "shameful and hypocritical," while behind the scenes, discussions focus on a girls' school reportedly hit during the strikes.

All of this fuels an old distrust in the Arab world. There's a fear that Washington will pull the plug after a symbolic success, leaving the region in chaos. "Everything is destroyed, the regime is still there – and the Americans just walk away," one diplomat fears. The Saudis and Emiratis are already eyeing the East. China and Russia seize every opportunity in the Security Council to expose the US. They sense their chance to lastingly weaken American influence in the region.

What's Next for the Conflict?

The truth is: No one knows how to get out of this mess. Trump is under domestic pressure because gas prices are rising. So he's releasing strategic oil reserves and spinning the war positively. In Israel, Defense Minister Katz is pushing for "unlimited warfare in terms of time." And the Iranian leadership, led by a traumatized and vengeful new supreme leader, apparently has no interest in de-escalation. On the contrary: They are openly threatening to mine the Strait of Hormuz and attack the energy infrastructure of the entire region. Oil at $200 a barrel? That scenario is no longer far-fetched.

For us observers here in the region, only one thing remains: wait and take a deep breath. The situation is more confusing and dangerous than ever. What is clear is this: Anyone who still thinks this war is a simple settling of scores between Washington and Tehran simply doesn't understand how to read this conflict. This is a war that could write the book on how to use the Iran US conflict as a textbook case for hybrid threats. And the Gulf powder keg is on the verge of setting the whole world ablaze.