Iran-US Conflict: An Escalation Foretold – How Tehran is Drawing the Gulf States into War

Imagine sitting in a café in Sharm el-Sheikh or Dubai, looking out at the sea. Just a few weeks ago, the view would have been of peaceful tankers and the clear blue of the Gulf. Today? The Strait of Hormuz has become a powder keg, and everyone is left wondering where the next Iranian drone will strike. The Iran-US conflict has reached a new, perilous level. While US President Donald Trump seriously declares the war all but won, emotions in the region are boiling over – and Washington's allies are left in the lurch.

Trump's "Victory" and the Reality on the Ground

"There's practically nothing left to strike," Trump had a US news outlet report. A bold claim, considering the US itself admits to having bombed over 5,000 targets in Iran. Sure, Tehran's military infrastructure has taken a massive hit. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead; his son Mojtaba has already been named successor and is reportedly injured and holed up in a secret location. But who seriously believes a country like Iran will just back down because the visible command centres lie in ruins?

The Revolutionary Guard has only one answer to Trump's victory crowing: "We are the ones who decide when this war ends." And they're backing up their words with action. While Washington mulls over exit strategies, the Guard has long since launched phase two. A phase you could safely call a guide to the Iran-US conflict in asymmetric warfare.

The "Horizontal" Front: Everyone Pays the Price

Here's the real kicker, one that Western headquarters have apparently fatally underestimated. Tehran cannot defeat the US on the battlefield – every child there knows that. So, they shift the fight. They broaden it. Target the soft underbelly. Experts call this "horizontal escalation." And it's working frighteningly well right now. The US Embassy in Riyadh? Grazed by a drone. The Al-Udeid US base in Qatar? Hit by a ballistic missile. The consulate in Dubai? In flames.

This isn't the wild thrashing of a dying regime, as Trump might want you to believe. This is a strategy that was announced. By attacking not just Israel, but specifically the infrastructure of the Gulf States, Iran is holding those very countries responsible from whose soil the American attacks are launched. The message is crystal clear: You want to wage your war against us from your clean, safe territory? Then you'll have to bear the consequences, too.

Allies Left in the Lurch? Resentment Grows in the Gulf

And this is precisely where the alliance is starting to creak and groan. Diplomats from the region speak off the record about a "fatal miscalculation" by the US regarding Iran's capacity to respond. For weeks, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha lobbied Trump to hold off on a military strike. In vain. And now? Now fires are breaking out everywhere, and the air defence systems of the wealthy sheikhdoms – not fully integrated – are slowly but surely running out of ammunition.

• Saudi Arabia: Finds itself forced to defend its capital from attacks.
• UAE: Assessing the damage to its consulate in Dubai.
• Qatar: Its citizens wonder if the massive US base is more of a blessing or a curse.
• Bahrain: Has already suffered a hit to a vital desalination plant.

A diplomat from one Gulf state summed it up in a conversation with a capital-city media outlet: "If Iran attacks all the Gulf states, it loses the last possible channels for dialogue." The desperation is palpable. They feel like victims of an escalation they never wanted. The review of the Iran-US conflict from the local perspective, then, is damning – for both sides.

The Invisible Battle for World Opinion

Meanwhile, an absurd theatre is playing out in New York. The UN Security Council meets, positions are entrenched. The Iranian ambassador accuses the US of war crimes; his US counterpart invokes Article 51 of the UN Charter and the right to self-defence. And then, of all people, Melania Trump chairs a council session on children's rights – an irony of history that Tehran's representative naturally immediately brands "shameful and hypocritical," while behind the scenes, they discuss a girls' school reportedly hit in the strikes.

All of this feeds an old mistrust in the Arab world. There's a fear that Washington, after a symbolic success, will pull the plug and leave the region in chaos. "Everything is destroyed, the regime is still there – and the Americans just pull out," one diplomat fears. The Saudis and Emiratis are already eyeing the East. China and Russia seize every opportunity in the Security Council to call out the US. They smell their chance to sustainably weaken American influence in the region.

What's Next for the Conflict?

The truth is: nobody knows how to get out of this mess. Trump is under domestic pressure because gas prices are rising. So he releases strategic oil reserves and tries to put a positive spin on the war. In Israel, Defence Minister Katz insists on "combat with no time limit." And the Iranian leadership, led by a traumatized and vengeful new supreme leader, apparently has no interest in de-escalation. On the contrary: they openly threaten to mine the Strait of Hormuz and attack the energy infrastructure of the entire region. Oil at $200 a barrel? That scenario is no longer unrealistic.

For us observers here in the region, only one thing remains: wait and take a deep breath. The situation is more confusing and dangerous than ever. What is clear: anyone who still believes this war is a simple settling of scores between Washington and Tehran hasn't understood how to read this conflict. It's a war that could write the book on how to use the Iran-US conflict as a textbook for hybrid threats. And the Gulf powder keg is on the verge of setting the whole world ablaze.