Iran-USA face-off: An escalation with warning signs – how Tehran is pulling the Gulf states into war

Picture this: you're sitting at a café in Sharm El-Sheikh or Dubai, looking out at the water. A few weeks ago, the view would have been of peaceful tankers and the clear blue of the Gulf. Today? The Strait of Hormuz has become a tinderbox, and everyone's wondering where the next Iranian drone will hit. The Iran USA conflict has reached a new, dangerously volatile stage. While US President Donald Trump seriously declares the war all but won, emotions in the region are boiling over – and Washington's allies are left in the lurch.

Trump's "victory" and the reality on the ground

"There's virtually nothing left to strike," Trump reportedly had a US intelligence service convey. A bold claim, considering the US itself admits to bombing over 5,000 targets in Iran. Sure, Tehran's military infrastructure has taken a massive hit. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, his son Mojtaba has already been named successor and is said to be injured and holed up in a secret location. But who seriously thinks a country like Iran will just back down because the visible command centres are in ruins?

The Revolutionary Guards have only one answer to Trump's victory cries: "We are the ones who decide when this war ends." And they're backing up their words with action. While Washington mulls over exit strategies, the Guards have long since launched phase two. A phase you could safely call a Iran USA conflict guide to asymmetric warfare.

The "horizontal" front: Everyone pays the price

Here's the real kicker, the one Western headquarters have apparently sorely underestimated. Tehran can't beat the US on the battlefield – every kid there knows that. So they shift the fight. Broadening it. Targeting the soft underbelly. Experts call this "horizontal escalation". And it's working scarily well right now. The US Embassy in Riyadh? Grazed by a drone. The Al-Udeid US base in Qatar? Hit by a ballistic missile. The consulate in Dubai? In flames.

This isn't the wild thrashing of a dying regime, as Trump might want us to believe. This is a strategy with clear warning signs. By targeting not just Israel, but specifically the infrastructure of the Gulf states, Iran is holding those very countries responsible on whose soil the American attacks are launched. The message is crystal clear: You want to wage war against us from your clean, safe territory? Then you have to deal with the consequences, too.

Allies left high and dry? Resentment grows in the Gulf

And this is precisely where the alliance is starting to creak badly. Diplomats from the region, speaking off the record, report a "fatal underestimation" by the US of Iran's capacity to respond. For weeks, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha had been lobbying Trump to call off a military strike. In vain. And now? Now fires are breaking out everywhere, and the air defence systems of the wealthy sheikhdoms – which aren't fully integrated – are slowly but surely running out of ammunition.

• Saudi Arabia: Forced to defend its capital from attacks.
• UAE: Counting the damage to its Dubai consulate.
• Qatar: Its residents wondering if the giant US base is more of a blessing or a curse.
• Bahrain: Already copped a hit to a vital desalination plant.

A diplomat from a Gulf state summed it up to a capital city newspaper: "If Iran attacks all Gulf states, it loses the last possible channels for dialogue." The desperation is palpable. They feel like victims of an escalation they never wanted. The Iran USA conflict review from the locals' perspective, then, is damning – for both sides.

The invisible battle for world opinion

Meanwhile, an absurd theatre is playing out in New York. The UN Security Council meets, positions are entrenched. The Iranian ambassador accuses the US of war crimes; his US counterpart cites Article 51 of the UN Charter and the right to self-defence. And then, of all people, Melania Trump chairs a council meeting on children's rights – an irony of history that Tehran's representative naturally immediately brands "shameful and hypocritical," while behind the scenes, talk turns to a girls' school reportedly hit in the strikes.

All of this feeds an old distrust in the Arab world. There's a fear that Washington, after a symbolic success, will pull the plug and leave the region in chaos. "Everything is destroyed, the regime is still there – and the Americans just pack up and leave," one diplomat fears. The Saudis and Emiratis are already eyeing the East. China and Russia seize every opportunity in the Security Council to call out the US. They smell a chance to sustainably weaken American influence in the region.

What's next for the conflict?

The truth is: No one knows how to get out of this mess. Trump is under domestic pressure because petrol prices are rising. So he releases strategic oil reserves and paints a rosy picture of the war. In Israel, Defence Minister Katz insists on an "unlimited fight in terms of time." And the Iranian leadership, led by a traumatised and vengeful new supreme leader, clearly has no interest in de-escalation. On the contrary: they openly threaten to mine the Strait of Hormuz and attack the energy infrastructure of the entire region. A barrel of oil for 200 dollars? That scenario is no longer far-fetched.

For us observers here in the region, only one thing remains: wait and take a deep breath. The situation is more confusing and dangerous than ever. What is clear: Anyone who still thinks this war is a simple settling of scores between Washington and Tehran hasn't understood how to read this conflict. It's a war that could write how to use Iran USA conflict as a textbook for hybrid threats. And the Gulf tinderbox is on the verge of setting the whole world alight.