Iran-US conflict: A predictable escalation – how Tehran is dragging the Gulf states into war

Imagine sitting in a café in Sharm el-Sheikh or Dubai, looking out to sea. Just a few weeks ago, the view would have been of peaceful tankers and the clear blue waters of the Gulf. Today? The Strait of Hormuz has become a powder keg, and everyone is left wondering where the next Iranian drone will strike. The Iran-US conflict has entered a new, perilous phase. While US President Donald Trump seriously declares that the war is as good as won, emotions in the region are running high – and Washington's allies are left in the lurch.

Trump's "victory" and the reality on the ground

"There's virtually nothing left to strike," Trump reportedly told a US intelligence agency. A bold claim, considering the US itself admits to having bombed over 5,000 targets in Iran. Sure, Tehran's military infrastructure has taken a massive hit. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, his son Mojtaba has already been named successor and is said to be injured and holed up in a secret location. But who genuinely believes a country like Iran will just give in, just because the visible command centres lie in ruins?

The Revolutionary Guards have only one answer to Trump's victory boasts: "We are the ones who decide when this war ends." And they're backing it up with action. While Washington mulls over exit strategies, the Guards have already launched phase two. A phase you could comfortably call a guide to the Iran-US conflict in asymmetrical warfare.

The "horizontal" front: Everyone pays the price

This is the real kicker, something the Western headquarters seem to have badly underestimated. Tehran knows it can't defeat the US on the battlefield – every child there knows that. So, they're shifting the fight. Broadening it. Targeting the soft underbelly. Experts call this "horizontal escalation". And right now, it's working alarmingly well. The US embassy in Riyadh? Grazed by a drone. The Al Udeid US base in Qatar? Hit by a ballistic missile. The consulate in Dubai? In flames.

This isn't the wild thrashing of a dying regime, as Trump might want you to believe. This is a predicted strategy. By attacking not just Israel, but deliberately targeting the infrastructure of the Gulf states, Iran is forcing the very countries from which American attacks are launched to bear the responsibility. The message is crystal clear: You want to wage this war against us from your clean, safe territory? Then you have to face the consequences.

Allies left high and dry? Growing resentment in the Gulf

And this is precisely where the alliance is starting to creak under the strain. Diplomats from the region speak off the record of a "fatal underestimation" by the US of Iran's ability to retaliate. In Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, they'd spent weeks lobbying Trump to call off a military strike. In vain. And now? Now fires are breaking out everywhere, and the air defence systems of the wealthy sheikhdoms – which aren't fully integrated – are slowly but surely running out of ammunition.

• Saudi Arabia: Forced to fend off attacks on its capital.
• UAE: Counting the cost of the damage to its Dubai consulate.
• Qatar: Its residents wondering if the giant US base is more of a blessing or a curse.
• Bahrain: Already had a vital desalination plant hit.

A diplomat from a Gulf state put it bluntly to a major media outlet: "If Iran attacks all the Gulf states, it loses the last possible channels for dialogue." The desperation is palpable. They feel like victims of an escalation they never wanted. The local review of the Iran-US conflict is damning – for both sides.

The invisible battle for world opinion

Meanwhile, an absurd drama is playing out in New York. The UN Security Council meets, positions are entrenched. Iran's ambassador accuses the US of war crimes; his US counterpart invokes Article 51 of the UN Charter and the right to self-defence. And then, of all people, Melania Trump chairs a council session on children's rights – an irony of history that Tehran's representative instantly brands "shameful and hypocritical," all while behind the scenes, discussions focus on a girls' school reportedly hit in the strikes.

All of this fuels an old distrust in the Arab world. There's a fear that Washington, after a symbolic victory, will pull the plug and leave the region in chaos. "Everything is destroyed, the regime is still there – and the Americans are just pulling out," one diplomat fears. The Saudis and Emiratis are already looking east. China and Russia seize every opportunity in the Security Council to embarrass the US. They sense a chance to permanently weaken American influence in the region.

Where next for the conflict?

The truth is: nobody knows how to get out of this mess. Trump is under domestic pressure because of rising petrol prices. So, he releases strategic oil reserves and tries to put a positive spin on the war. In Israel, Defence Minister Katz insists on "fighting without time limits". And the Iranian leadership, led by a traumatised and vengeful new head, seems to have no interest in de-escalation. Quite the opposite: they openly threaten to mine the Strait of Hormuz and attack the energy infrastructure of the entire region. Oil at $200 a barrel? That scenario is no longer far-fetched.

For us observers here in the region, only one thing remains: wait and see, and take a deep breath. The situation is more confusing and dangerous than ever. What is clear is this: anyone who still believes this war is a simple settling of scores between Washington and Tehran has completely misread this conflict. This is a war that could write the handbook on how to use the Iran-US conflict as a model for hybrid threats. And the Gulf powder keg is on the verge of setting the whole world ablaze.