Iran-USA Conflict: A Predictable Escalation – How Tehran Is Dragging the Gulf States into War

Imagine sitting in a café in Sharm el-Sheikh or Dubai, looking out at the sea. Just a few weeks ago, the view would have been of peaceful tankers and the clear blue of the Gulf. Today? The Strait of Hormuz has become a powder keg, and everyone is left wondering where the next Iranian drone will hit. The Iran USA conflict has entered a new, dangerously volatile phase. While US President Donald Trump seriously declares the war all but won, emotions in the region are boiling over – and Washington's allies are left in the lurch.

Trump's "Victory" and the Reality on the Ground

"There's practically nothing left to strike," Trump reportedly told a US intelligence service. A bold claim, considering the US itself admits to bombing over 5,000 targets in Iran. Sure, Tehran's military infrastructure has taken a massive hit. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, his son Mojtaba has already been named successor and is said to be injured and hiding in an undisclosed location. But who seriously believes a country like Iran will just roll over because the visible command centres are in ruins?

The Revolutionary Guards have only one answer to Trump's crowing about victory: "We are the ones who decide when this war ends." And they're getting down to business. While Washington mulls over exit strategies, the Guards have long since launched phase two. A phase you could safely call a Iran USA conflict guide to asymmetric warfare.

The "Horizontal" Front: Everyone Pays the Price

Here's the real kicker, the one Western headquarters seem to have badly underestimated. Tehran can't beat the US on a conventional battlefield – every kid there knows that. So they shift the fight. Outwards. Aiming for the soft underbelly. Experts call this "horizontal escalation". And it's working frighteningly well. The US Embassy in Riyadh? Grazed by a drone. The Al-Udeid US base in Qatar? Hit by a ballistic missile. The consulate in Dubai? In flames.

This isn't the wild thrashing of a dying regime, as Trump might have you believe. It's a strategy, and they announced it. By attacking not just Israel, but specifically targeting the infrastructure of the Gulf states, Iran is holding those very countries accountable – the ones from whose soil the American attacks are launched. The message is crystal clear: You want to wage your war against us from your clean, safe territory? Then you'll have to face the music too.

Allies Left in the Lurch? Resentment Grows in the Gulf

And this is precisely where the alliance is starting to creak and groan. Diplomats from the region are quietly talking about a "fatal miscalculation" by the US of Iran's capacity to respond. For weeks, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha had lobbied Trump to hold off on a military strike. In vain. And now? Now fires are breaking out everywhere, and the air defence systems of the wealthy sheikhdoms – not fully integrated – are slowly but surely running out of ammo.

• Saudi Arabia: Forced to defend its capital from attacks.
• UAE: Counting the cost of damage to its Dubai consulate.
• Qatar: Its citizens wondering if hosting the massive US base is more of a blessing or a curse.
• Bahrain: Already suffered a strike on a vital desalination plant.

One diplomat from a Gulf state summed it up to a major news outlet: "If Iran attacks all the Gulf states, it burns its last remaining channels for dialogue." The frustration is palpable. They feel like victims of an escalation they never wanted. From a local perspective, the Iran USA conflict review is damning – for both sides.

The Invisible Battle for Global Opinion

Meanwhile, an absurd drama is playing out in New York. The UN Security Council is meeting, positions are entrenched. The Iranian ambassador accuses the US of war crimes; his US counterpart cites Article 51 of the UN Charter, the right to self-defence. And then, of all people, Melania Trump chairs a Council session on children's rights – a historical irony that Tehran's representative naturally condemns immediately as "shameful and hypocritical," all while behind the scenes, there's talk of a girls' school reportedly hit in the strikes.

All of this fuels an old distrust in the Arab world. There's a fear that Washington, having secured a symbolic victory, will just pull the plug and leave the region in chaos. "Everything is destroyed, the regime is still there – and the Americans just up and leave," one diplomat fears. The Saudis and Emiratis are already looking east. China and Russia in the Security Council seize every opportunity to put the US on the spot. They sense their chance to permanently weaken American influence in the region.

What Next for the Conflict?

The truth is: nobody knows how to get out of this mess. Trump is under domestic pressure because petrol prices are rising. So he releases strategic oil reserves and paints a rosy picture of the war. In Israel, Defence Minister Katz insists on a "fight with no time limit". And the Iranian leadership, headed by a traumatised and vengeful new supreme leader, seems to have no interest in de-escalation. Quite the opposite: they're openly threatening to mine the Strait of Hormuz and attack the region's energy infrastructure. Oil at $200 a barrel? That scenario is no longer far-fetched.

For us observers here in the region, there's only one thing to do: wait and take a deep breath. The situation is more confusing and dangerous than ever. What is clear: anyone who still thinks this war is a simple settling of scores between Washington and Tehran hasn't understood how to read this conflict. It's a war that could write the book on how to use the Iran USA conflict as a textbook for hybrid threats. And the Gulf powder keg is on the verge of setting the whole world ablaze.