Iran-US Conflict: An Announced Escalation – How Tehran is Dragging the Gulf States into War

Imagine sitting in a café in Sharm El-Sheikh or Dubai, looking out at the sea. Just a few weeks ago, the view would have been of peaceful tankers and the clear blue of the Gulf. Today? The Strait of Hormuz has become a tinderbox, and everyone is wondering where the next Iranian drone will hit. The Iran US conflict has reached a new, dangerously volatile stage. While US President Donald Trump seriously proclaims that the war is as good as won, emotions in the region are boiling over – and Washington's allies are left in the lurch.

Trump's "Victory" and the Reality on the Ground

"There's practically nothing left to strike," Trump reportedly had a US intelligence service convey. A bold claim, considering the US itself admits to having bombed over 5,000 targets in Iran. Sure, Tehran's military infrastructure has taken a massive hit. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead, his son Mojtaba has already been named successor and is said to be injured and holed up in a secret location. But who seriously believes a country like Iran will just give in because the visible command centres are in ruins?

The Revolutionary Guards have only one answer to Trump's victory crowing: "We are the ones who decide when this war ends." And they're getting down to business. While Washington mulls over exit strategies, the Guards have long since launched phase two. A phase you could comfortably call a guide to the Iran US conflict in asymmetric warfare.

The "Horizontal" Front: Everyone Pays the Price

Here's the real kicker, apparently gravely underestimated in Western headquarters. Tehran can't defeat the US on the battlefield – every kid there knows that. So, they shift the fight. They broaden it. Target the soft underbelly. Experts call this "horizontal escalation". And it's working frighteningly well right now. The US Embassy in Riyadh? Grazed by a drone. The Al-Udeid US base in Qatar? Hit by a ballistic missile. The consulate in Dubai? In flames.

This isn't the wild thrashing of a dying regime, as Trump might want people to believe. This is a strategy that was signposted. By attacking not just Israel, but specifically the infrastructure of the Gulf states, Iran is holding precisely those countries responsible on whose soil the American attacks are launched. The message is crystal clear: You want to wage your war against us from your clean, safe territory? Then you have to bear the consequences too.

Allies Left in the Lurch? Resentment Grows in the Gulf

And this is exactly where the alliance is creaking at the seams. Diplomats from the region speak off the record about a "fatal underestimation" of Iran's ability to respond by the US. For weeks, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha had lobbied to talk Trump out of a military strike. In vain. And now? Now fires are breaking out everywhere, and the air defence systems of the wealthy sheikhdoms – which aren't fully integrated – are slowly but surely running out of ammunition.

• Saudi Arabia: Finds itself forced to defend its capital from attacks.
• UAE: Assessing the damage to its consulate in Dubai.
• Qatar: Its residents wonder if the huge US base is more of a blessing or a curse.
• Bahrain: Has already suffered a hit to a vital desalination plant.

A diplomat from a Gulf state put it bluntly in a conversation with a capital city media outlet: "If Iran attacks all Gulf states, it loses its last possible channels for dialogue." The desperation is palpable. They feel like victims of an escalation they never wanted. The local review of the Iran US conflict is therefore damning – for both sides.

The Invisible Battle for World Opinion

Meanwhile, an absurd theatre is playing out in New York. The UN Security Council meets, positions are entrenched. The Iranian ambassador accuses the US of war crimes, his US counterpart cites Article 51 of the UN Charter and the right to self-defence. And then, of all people, Melania Trump chairs a council session on children's rights – an irony of history that Tehran's representative naturally immediately brands as "shameful and hypocritical," while behind the scenes, discussions are held about a girls' school reportedly hit in the attacks.

All of this fuels an old mistrust in the Arab world. There's a fear that Washington, after a symbolic success, will pull the plug and leave the region in chaos. "Everything is destroyed, the regime is still there – and the Americans just pack up and leave," fears one diplomat. The Saudis and Emiratis are already eyeing the East. China and Russia in the Security Council miss no opportunity to call out the US. They sense their chance to permanently weaken American influence in the region.

What's Next for the Conflict?

The truth is: Nobody knows how to get out of this mess. Trump is under domestic pressure because petrol prices are rising. So, he releases strategic oil reserves and talks up the war. In Israel, Defence Minister Katz insists on an "unlimited fight in terms of time." And the Iranian leadership, led by a traumatised and vengeful new leader, apparently has no interest in de-escalation. On the contrary: They openly threaten to mine the Strait of Hormuz and attack the energy infrastructure of the entire region. A barrel of oil for $200? That scenario is no longer unrealistic.

For us observers here in the region, only one thing remains: Wait and see, and take a deep breath. The situation is more confusing and dangerous than ever. What is clear is this: Anyone who still believes this war is a simple settling of scores between Washington and Tehran hasn't understood how to read this conflict. It's a war that could write the textbook on how to use the Iran US conflict as a lesson in hybrid threats. And the Gulf tinderbox is on the verge of setting the whole world ablaze.