Viktor Orbán's Hungary: From a Gas War to History's Lessons on Dictatorship

When you follow European politics, there’s one figure who consistently grabs headlines in a way that makes even the most seasoned observers do a double-take. Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister has been pulling the strings again, and this time it’s not just empty threats from Brussels that are fuelling the debate. No, this week he’s made good on something many have feared: he’s shutting off the gas pipeline from Hungary to Ukraine.

It’s a decision that lands right in the middle of an already volatile geopolitical minefield. While war rages in eastern Ukraine and officials in Kyiv scramble to secure their energy supplies, Budapest has decided to tighten the screws. Officially, it’s about contractual disagreements, but for those of us who’ve watched this man for years, we know it’s a power play. It’s Orbán’s way of reminding everyone that he holds one of the region’s most critical infrastructure keys. And let’s not forget, this comes at a time when Zelenskyy’s rhetoric against the TurkStream pipeline has been cranked up. It’s a game where gas is used as a weapon, and Orbán is a master of that discipline.

This brings me to something that runs deeper than the current gas crisis. To understand Viktor Orbán in 2026, you need to understand Hungary’s historical undercurrents. It’s nothing new that Budapest has a strained relationship with its neighbours and with “the West.” You can trace it all the way back to the Dual Monarchy and the era of Franz Joseph. Back then, it was the Viennese bureaucracy that stifled Hungarian ambitions. Today, it’s Brussels that plays that same role in Orbán’s narrative. His project is a continuation of that historical quest for sovereignty, but with a modern, populist twist that would make even old Habsburg experts furrow their brows.

The Cult of Personality and a Book That’s Become Relevant Again

You can’t talk about present-day Hungary without mentioning the pervasive cult of personality. I recently came across an old favourite on my desk: Frank Dikötter’s “How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century”. It’s a book that should be required reading for anyone wondering how power becomes centred around one man in the 21st century. When you read Dikötter’s analyses of Mussolini, Saddam Hussein, or Ceaușescu, you suddenly see the same patterns playing out on a smaller scale in Hungary. The giant billboards, the total control over the media, and how even the smallest critical voice is systematically silenced. Orbán has understood that power isn’t just about laws; it’s about capturing the public consciousness. It’s no longer “Hungary under the Orbán regime” – it’s simply Orbán’s Hungary.

And that naturally brings us to the upcoming EU elections. A recent column pointed out that “Viktor Orbán and his allies will not win the EU elections.” It’s an important point. Because while he’s strong in Budapest, the European stage is a whole different battle. His alliance of national-conservative forces is a mixed bag, and the internal tensions are enormous. But saying they won’t win isn’t the same as saying they won’t cause havoc. They’ve already shifted the conversation in Brussels. They’ve moved the goalposts on what’s politically acceptable. Even if they don’t secure a majority, Orbán has already won on a crucial front: he’s gotten the rest of Europe to play by his rules.

Looking at the current situation, three things are clear to me:

• Gas as a Geopolitical Weapon: Cutting off the gas to Ukraine shows that energy security remains the hardest currency in Eastern European politics. Orbán is testing the limits of how much he can pressure both Kyiv and Brussels before there’s a backlash.
• History Repeating: From Franz Joseph’s time to today, Hungary’s leaders have seen themselves as the defenders of a national interest that often clashes with the outside world. Orbán has perfected this narrative, packaging it in a modern, authoritarian aesthetic.
• The Shadow of the EU Elections: All his current manoeuvres are calculated with an eye on the balance of power in Strasbourg. He knows that a weakened EU gives him more room to cement his own system in Hungary.

As we stand here in March 2026, it’s worth remembering that gas isn’t the only thing in short supply in the region. So is trust. Trust that the old rules of the game still hold. Viktor Orbán has built his career on exploiting those loopholes in the system. He’s studied history – and his own version of “How to Be a Dictator” – closely. The question now is whether the rest of Europe has finally read that same book, or whether we’ll continue to be caught off guard every time he pushes the red button.