Viktor Orbán’s Hungary: From a Gas War to History’s Dictatorship Lessons

When following political developments across Europe, one figure consistently manages to grab headlines that make even seasoned observers do a double-take. Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister has once again pulled the strings, and this time it's not just empty threats from Brussels dominating the conversation. No, this week he’s followed through on something many have long feared: he’s shutting off the gas supply from Hungary to Ukraine.

It’s a decision that lands squarely in an already highly volatile geopolitical minefield. With the war raging in eastern Ukraine, and Kyiv frantically trying to secure its energy supplies, Budapest has chosen to tighten the screws. Officially, it’s a dispute over contracts, but for those of us who’ve followed this man for years, we know it’s a show of power. It’s Orbán’s way of reminding everyone that he holds one of the region’s most critical infrastructural keys. And let’s not forget, this coincides with Zelenskyy’s rhetoric against the ‘TurkStream’ pipeline being dialled up. It’s a game where gas is wielded as a weapon, and Orbán is a master of that particular art.

This brings me to something that runs deeper than the current gas crisis. To understand Viktor Orbán in 2026, you have to grasp Hungary’s historical undercurrents. It’s nothing new that Budapest has a strained relationship with its neighbours and with ‘the West’. You can trace it all the way back to the dual monarchy and the era of Franz Joseph. Back then, it was Viennese bureaucracy stifling Hungarian ambitions. Today, it’s Brussels playing that same role in Orbán’s narrative. His project is a continuation of that historical quest for sovereignty, but with a modern, populist twist that leaves even seasoned Habsburg experts scratching their heads.

The Cult of Personality and a Book That’s Resurfaced

You can’t discuss present-day Hungary without mentioning the pervasive personality cult. I recently came across an old acquaintance on my desk: Frank Dikötter’s “How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century”. It’s a book that should be required reading for anyone wondering how power becomes centred on one man in the 21st century. When you read Dikötter’s analyses of Mussolini, Saddam Hussein or Ceaușescu, you suddenly see the same patterns playing out in miniature in Hungary. The giant posters, the total control over the media, and how even the smallest critical voice is systematically crushed. Orbán has understood that power isn’t just about laws; it’s about capturing consciousness. It’s no longer ‘Hungary under the Orbán regime’ – it’s simply Orbán’s Hungary.

And that naturally brings us to the upcoming EU elections. A recent column pointed out that ‘Viktor Orbán and his allies will not win the EU elections’. It’s an important point. Because even though he stands strong in Budapest, the battle on the European stage is a completely different game. His alliance of national-conservative forces is a motley crew, and the internal tensions are enormous. But to say they won’t win is not the same as saying they won’t cause havoc. They’ve already shifted the conversation in Brussels. They’ve moved the boundaries of what’s considered politically acceptable. Even if they don’t secure a majority, Orbán has already won on a crucial point: he’s got the rest of Europe playing by his rules.

Looking at the current situation, three things stand out to me:

• Gas as a geopolitical weapon: Cutting off gas to Ukraine shows that energy security remains the toughest currency in Eastern European politics. Orbán is testing how far he can push both Kyiv and Brussels before there’s a backlash.
• History repeating itself: From the time of Franz Joseph to today, Hungary’s leaders have seen themselves as protectors of a national interest that often clashes with the outside world. Orbán has perfected this narrative, wrapping it in a modern, authoritarian aesthetic.
• The shadow of the EU elections: All his current manoeuvres are calculated with an eye on the balance of power in Strasbourg. He knows a weakened EU gives him more room to cement his own system in Hungary.

As we stand here in March 2026, it’s worth remembering that gas isn’t the only thing in short supply in the region. So is trust. Trust that the old rules of the game still hold. Viktor Orbán has built his career on exploiting these gaps in the system. He’s read up on history – and his own version of ‘How to Be a Dictator’ – thoroughly. The question now is whether the rest of Europe has finally read the same book, or whether we’ll continue to be caught off guard every time he presses the red button.