Viktor Orbán’s Hungary: From a Gas War to History’s Lessons in Dictatorship

If you’ve been following the political landscape in Europe, there’s one figure who consistently grabs headlines in a way that makes even seasoned observers do a double-take. Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister is once again pulling the strings, and this time, the debate isn’t just about empty threats from Brussels. No, this week, he followed through on something many have long feared: he shut off the gas pipeline from Hungary to Ukraine.

It’s a decision that lands right in the middle of an already explosive geopolitical minefield. With the war raging in eastern Ukraine and Kyiv scrambling to secure its energy supplies, Budapest has decided to tighten the screws. Officially, it’s about contractual disagreements, but for those of us who’ve been watching this man for years, it’s clearly a power play. It’s Orbán’s way of reminding everyone that he holds one of the region’s most critical infrastructure keys. And let’s not forget, this is happening just as Zelenskyy’s rhetoric against the TurkStream pipeline has been dialled up. It’s a game where natural gas is wielded as a weapon, and Orbán is a master of that discipline.

This brings me to something deeper than the current gas crisis. To understand Viktor Orbán in 2026, you have to understand Hungary’s historical undercurrents. The tense relationship with its neighbours and “the West” in Budapest isn’t new. You can trace it all the way back to the dual monarchy and the era of Franz Joseph. Back then, it was Viennese bureaucracy stifling Hungarian ambitions. Today, in Orbán’s narrative, Brussels plays that same role. His project is a continuation of that historic quest for sovereignty, but with a modern, populist twist that would make even old-school Habsburg experts raise an eyebrow.

The Cult of Personality and a Book That’s Become Relevant Again

You can’t talk about present-day Hungary without mentioning the all-encompassing cult of personality. I recently came across an old favourite on my desk: Frank Dikötter’s “How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century.” It’s a book that should be required reading for anyone wondering how power gets centred around one man in the 21st century. When you read Dikötter’s analyses of Mussolini, Saddam Hussein, or Ceaușescu, you suddenly see the same patterns playing out on a smaller scale in Hungary. The giant billboards, the total control over the media, and how even the faintest critical voice is systematically crushed. Orbán has understood that power isn’t just about laws; it’s about capturing the public consciousness. It’s no longer “Hungary under the Orbán regime”—it’s just Orbán’s Hungary.

And that naturally brings us to the upcoming EU elections. As a recent column pointed out, “Viktor Orbán and his allies will not win the EU elections.” That’s a key point. Because as powerful as he is in Budapest, the European stage is a whole different battleground. His alliance of national conservatives is a mixed bag, and the internal tensions are enormous. But saying they won’t win isn’t the same as saying they won’t wreak havoc. They’ve already shifted the conversation in Brussels. They’ve pushed the boundaries of what’s considered politically acceptable. Even if they don’t get a majority, Orbán has already won on a crucial point: he’s gotten the rest of Europe to play by his rules.

Looking at the current situation, three things stand out to me:

• Gas as a Geopolitical Weapon: Shutting off gas to Ukraine shows that energy security remains the most valuable currency in Eastern European politics. Orbán is testing the limits of how much he can pressure both Kyiv and Brussels before facing any real backlash.
• History Repeating Itself: From Franz Joseph’s time to today, Hungary’s leaders have seen themselves as the protectors of a national interest that often clashes with the outside world. Orbán has perfected this narrative, packaging it in a modern, authoritarian aesthetic.
• The Shadow of the EU Elections: Every move he makes right now is calculated with an eye on the balance of power in Strasbourg. He knows a weakened EU gives him more room to cement his own system in Hungary.

As we stand here in March 2026, it’s worth remembering that gas isn’t the only thing in short supply in the region. So is trust. Trust that the old rules of the game still apply. Viktor Orbán has built his career on exploiting these loopholes in the system. He’s studied history—and his own version of “How to Be a Dictator”—very carefully. The question now is whether the rest of Europe has finally read the same book, or if we’ll keep being caught off guard every time he pushes the red button.