Viktor Orbán’s Hungary: From a Gas War to History’s Dictatorship Lessons

If you’re following political developments in Europe, there’s one figure who consistently grabs headlines in a way that makes even the most seasoned observers do a double-take. Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister is once again pulling the strings, and this time, the debate isn’t just filled with empty threats from Brussels. No, this week, he followed through on something many have long feared: he’s turning off the gas tap from Hungary to Ukraine.

This is a decision that lands right in the middle of an already explosive geopolitical minefield. While the war rages in eastern Ukraine, and Kyiv scrambles to secure its energy supply, Budapest has decided to turn up the pressure. Officially, it’s about a contract dispute, but for those of us who’ve followed this man for years, we know it’s a show of force. It’s Orbán’s way of reminding everyone that he holds one of the region’s most critical infrastructure keys. And let’s not forget, this is happening at the same time that Zelenskyy’s rhetoric against the “TurkStream” pipeline has been cranked up. It’s a game where gas is wielded as a weapon, and Orbán is a master of the craft.

This brings me to something deeper than the current gas crisis. To understand Viktor Orbán in 2026, you need to understand Hungary’s historical undercurrents. The strained relationship Budapest has with its neighbors and with “the West” isn’t new. You can trace it all the way back to the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the era of Franz Joseph. Back then, it was the Viennese bureaucracy that stifled Hungarian ambitions. Today, in Orbán’s telling, Brussels plays that same role. His project is a continuation of that historical quest for sovereignty, but with a modern, populist twist that would make even old Habsburg experts raise an eyebrow.

The Cult of Personality and a Book That’s Suddenly Relevant Again

You can’t talk about today’s Hungary without mentioning the pervasive cult of personality. I recently came across an old favorite on my desk: Frank Dikötter’s “How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century.” It’s a book that should be required reading for anyone wondering how power becomes centered around one man in the 21st century. When you read Dikötter’s analysis of Mussolini, Saddam Hussein, or Ceaușescu, you suddenly see the same patterns playing out on a smaller scale in Hungary. The giant billboards, the total control over the media, and how even the smallest critical voice is systematically silenced. Orbán has understood that power isn’t just about laws; it’s about capturing the public’s consciousness. It’s no longer “Hungary under the Orbán regime”—it’s simply Orbán’s Hungary.

And that naturally brings us to the upcoming EU elections. As a recent column pointed out, “Viktor Orbán and his allies will not win the EU elections.” That’s a crucial point. Because while he stands strong in Budapest, the European stage is a whole different battleground. His alliance of national conservatives is a mixed bag, and internal tensions are huge. But saying they won’t win isn’t the same as saying they won’t cause havoc. They’ve already shifted the conversation in Brussels. They’ve moved the goalposts for what’s politically acceptable. Even if they don’t secure a majority, Orbán has already won on a decisive point: he’s gotten the rest of Europe to play by his rules.

Looking at the current situation, three things are clear to me:

• Gas as a Geopolitical Weapon: Cutting off gas to Ukraine shows that energy security remains the ultimate currency in Eastern European politics. Orbán is testing the limits of how much he can push both Kyiv and Brussels before they push back.
• History Repeating Itself: From the time of Franz Joseph to today, Hungary’s leaders have seen themselves as the defenders of a national interest that often clashes with the outside world. Orbán has perfected this narrative, wrapping it in a modern, authoritarian aesthetic.
• The Shadow of the EU Elections: All of his current maneuvers are calculated with an eye on the balance of power in Strasbourg. He knows that a weakened EU gives him more room to solidify his own system in Hungary.

As we stand here in March 2026, it’s worth remembering that gas isn’t the only thing in short supply in the region. So is trust. Trust that the old rules of the game still hold. Viktor Orbán has built his career on exploiting these cracks in the system. He’s studied history—and his own version of “How to Be a Dictator”—closely. The question now is whether the rest of Europe has finally read the same book, or if we’ll continue to be caught off guard every time he pushes the red button.