Viktor Orbán’s Hungary: From the Gas War to History’s Lessons in Dictatorship

When you follow the political landscape in Europe, there’s one figure who consistently grabs headlines in a way that leaves even the most seasoned observers stunned. Viktor Orbán. Hungary’s prime minister has been pulling the strings again, and this time, it’s not just empty threats from Brussels dominating the conversation. No, this week, he made good on something many have feared: he’s shutting off the gas pipeline from Hungary to Ukraine.

It’s a decision that lands squarely in an already explosive geopolitical minefield. With the war raging in Eastern Ukraine and Kyiv scrambling to secure its energy supply, Budapest has decided to tighten the screws. Officially, it’s about contractual disagreements, but for those of us who’ve been watching this man for years, we know it’s a power play. It’s Orbán’s way of reminding everyone that he holds one of the region’s most critical infrastructure keys. And let’s not forget, this comes as Zelenskyy’s rhetoric against the TurkStream pipeline has been cranked up. This is a game where gas is wielded as a weapon, and Orbán is a master of this discipline.

This brings me to something that goes deeper than the current gas crisis. To understand Viktor Orbán in 2026, you have to understand Hungary’s historical undercurrents. It’s no secret that Budapest has always had a tense relationship with its neighbours and with “the West.” You can trace it all the way back to the dual monarchy and the era under Franz Joseph. Back then, it was the Viennese bureaucracy that stifled Hungarian ambitions. Today, in Orbán’s narrative, Brussels plays that same role. His project is a continuation of that historical pursuit of sovereignty, but with a modern, populist twist that would make even old-school Habsburg experts raise an eyebrow.

The Cult of Personality and the Book That’s Relevant Again

You can’t talk about present-day Hungary without mentioning the pervasive cult of personality. Recently, I came across an old favourite on my desk: Frank Dikötter’s “How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century.” It’s a book that should be required reading for anyone wondering how power becomes concentrated in one man in the 21st century. When you read Dikötter’s analyses of Mussolini, Saddam Hussein, or Ceaușescu, you suddenly see the same patterns playing out on a smaller scale in Hungary. The massive posters, the total control over the media, and how even the faintest critical voice is systematically silenced. Orbán has understood that power isn’t just about laws; it’s about capturing the public consciousness. It’s no longer “Hungary under the Orbán regime”—it’s just Orbán’s Hungary.

And that naturally brings us to the upcoming EU elections. A recent column pointed out that “Viktor Orbán and his allies will not win the EU elections.” That’s a crucial point. Because even though he’s in a strong position in Budapest, it’s a completely different fight on the European stage. His alliance of national-conservative forces is a mixed bag, and the internal tensions are massive. But saying they won’t win isn’t the same as saying they won’t wreak havoc. They’ve already shifted the conversation in Brussels. They’ve moved the goalposts on what’s politically acceptable. Even if they don’t get a majority, Orbán has already won on a key point: he’s got the rest of Europe playing by his rules.

Looking at the current situation, three things are clear to me:

• Gas as a Geopolitical Weapon: Shutting off the gas to Ukraine shows that energy security remains the ultimate currency in Eastern European politics. Orbán is testing the limits of how much he can pressure both Kyiv and Brussels before facing a backlash.
• History Repeating Itself: From the time of Franz Joseph to today, Hungary’s leaders have seen themselves as guardians of a national interest that often clashes with the outside world. Orbán has perfected this narrative, wrapping it in a modern, authoritarian aesthetic.
• The Shadow of the EU Elections: All his current manoeuvres are calculated with an eye on the power balance in Strasbourg. He knows that a weakened EU gives him more room to cement his own system in Hungary.

As we stand here in March 2026, it’s worth remembering that gas isn’t the only thing in short supply in the region. So is trust. Trust that the old rules of the game still hold. Viktor Orbán has built his career on exploiting these gaps in the system. He’s studied history—and his own version of “How to Be a Dictator”—thoroughly. The question now is whether the rest of Europe has finally read the same book, or whether we’ll continue to be caught off guard every time he pushes the red button.