Viktor Orbán’s Hungary: From a Gas War to History’s Lessons in Dictatorship

When you follow European politics, there’s one figure who consistently grabs headlines in a way that leaves even seasoned observers slack-jawed. Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian Prime Minister has been pulling the strings again, and this time, it’s not just empty threats from Brussels dominating the conversation. No, this week, he’s followed through on something many have long feared: he’s shutting off the gas flow from Hungary to Ukraine.

It’s a decision that lands right in the middle of an already explosive geopolitical minefield. While the war rages in eastern Ukraine, and Kyiv frantically tries to secure its energy supplies, Budapest has decided to turn the screws. Officially, it’s about disagreements over contracts, but for those of us who’ve followed this man for years, we know this is a show of power. It’s Orbán’s way of reminding everyone that he holds one of the region’s most critical infrastructure keys. And let’s not forget, this comes as Zelenskyy’s rhetoric against the “TurkStream” pipeline has been dialled up to eleven. It’s a game where gas is used as a weapon, and Orbán is a master of that discipline.

This brings me to something that runs deeper than the current gas crisis. To understand Viktor Orbán in 2026, you have to understand Hungary’s historical undercurrents. It’s no secret that Budapest has a strained relationship with its neighbours and “the West.” You can trace it all the way back to the Dual Monarchy and the era of Franz Joseph. Back then, it was Viennese bureaucracy stifling Hungarian ambitions. Today, in Orbán’s narrative, it’s Brussels playing that same role. His project is a continuation of that historical pursuit of sovereignty, but with a modern, populist twist that leaves even old Habsburg experts scratching their heads.

The Cult of Personality and a Book That’s Become Relevant Again

You can’t talk about today’s Hungary without mentioning the pervasive cult of personality. I recently came across an old favourite on my desk: Frank Dikötter’s “How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century.” It’s a book that should be required reading for anyone wondering how power becomes centred on one man in the 21st century. When you read Dikötter’s analyses of Mussolini, Saddam Hussein, or Ceaușescu, you suddenly see the same patterns playing out on a smaller scale in Hungary. The giant billboards, the total control over the media, and how even the slightest critical voice is systematically silenced. Orbán understands that power isn’t just about laws; it’s about seizing the consciousness of the people. It’s no longer “Hungary under the Orbán regime” – it’s simply Orbán’s Hungary.

And that naturally brings us to the upcoming EU elections. A recent column pointed out that “Viktor Orbán and his allies will not win the EU elections.” It’s an important point. Because while he’s strong in Budapest, the European stage is a completely different battle. His alliance of national conservatives is a motley crew, and the internal tensions are massive. But to say they won’t win isn’t the same as saying they won’t wreak havoc. They’ve already shifted the conversation in Brussels. They’ve moved the goalposts on what’s politically acceptable. Even if they don’t get a majority, Orbán has already won on a crucial front: he’s got the rest of Europe playing by his rules.

Looking at the current situation, three things are clear to me:

• Gas as a geopolitical weapon: Shutting off the gas to Ukraine shows that energy security remains the hardest currency in Eastern European politics. Orbán is testing the limits of how much he can push both Kyiv and Brussels before there’s a backlash.
• History repeating: From Franz Joseph’s time to today, Hungary’s leaders have seen themselves as guardians of a national interest that often clashes with the outside world. Orbán has perfected this narrative, wrapping it up in a modern, authoritarian aesthetic.
• The shadow of the EU elections: Every one of his moves right now is calculated with an eye on the balance of power in Strasbourg. He knows a weakened EU gives him more room to cement his own system in Hungary.

As we stand here in March 2026, it’s worth remembering that gas isn’t the only thing in short supply in the region. So is trust. Trust that the old rules of the game still hold. Viktor Orbán has built his career on exploiting these gaps in the system. He’s read the history books – and his own version of “How to Be a Dictator” – very carefully. The question now is whether the rest of Europe has finally read the same book, or whether we’ll keep being caught off guard every time he hits the red button.