Viktor Orbán’s Hungary: From a Gas War to History’s Lessons on Dictatorship

When you’re following the political scene in Europe, there’s one figure who consistently grabs headlines in a way that makes even seasoned observers do a double-take. Viktor Orbán. The Hungarian prime minister is at it again, and this time, the debate isn’t just about empty threats from Brussels. No, this week, he’s made good on something many have been dreading: he’s shutting off the gas pipeline from Hungary to Ukraine.

It’s a move that lands right in the middle of an already explosive geopolitical minefield. With the war raging in eastern Ukraine and Kyiv scrambling to secure its energy supply, Budapest has decided to turn up the pressure. Officially, it’s about contractual disagreements, but for those of us who’ve been watching this man for years, we know it’s a power play. It’s Orbán’s way of reminding everyone that he holds one of the region’s most critical infrastructure keys. And let’s not forget, this comes as Zelenskyy’s rhetoric against the TurkStream pipeline has been ratcheted up. This is a game where gas is weaponised, and Orbán is a master of the discipline.

This brings me to something that runs deeper than the current gas crisis. To understand Viktor Orbán in 2026, you have to understand Hungary’s historical undercurrents. It’s no secret that Budapest has always had a strained relationship with its neighbours and with “the West.” You can trace it all the way back to the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the era of Franz Joseph. Back then, it was the Viennese bureaucracy that stifled Hungarian ambitions. Today, in Orbán’s narrative, Brussels plays the same role. His project is a continuation of that historical pursuit of sovereignty, but with a modern, populist twist that leaves even old Habsburg experts scratching their heads.

The Cult of Personality and a Book That’s Become Relevant Again

You can’t talk about present-day Hungary without mentioning the pervasive cult of personality. I recently came across an old favourite on my desk: Frank Dikötter’s “How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century.” It’s a book that should be required reading for anyone wondering how power gets centralised around one man in the 21st century. When you read Dikötter’s analyses of Mussolini, Saddam Hussein, or Ceaușescu, you suddenly see the same patterns playing out on a smaller scale in Hungary. The giant posters, the total control over the media, and how even the smallest critical voice is systematically silenced. Orbán understands that power isn’t just about laws; it’s about capturing the public consciousness. It’s no longer “Hungary under the Orbán regime” – it’s simply Orbán’s Hungary.

And that naturally brings us to the upcoming EU elections. In a recent column, it was pointed out that “Viktor Orbán and his allies will not win the EU elections.” That’s a crucial point. Because even though he’s strong in Budapest, it’s a completely different battle on the European stage. His alliance of national conservatives is a mixed bag, and the internal tensions are huge. But saying they won’t win isn’t the same as saying they won’t cause mayhem. They’ve already shifted the conversation in Brussels. They’ve pushed the boundaries of what’s politically acceptable. Even if they don’t get a majority, Orbán has already won on one crucial front: he’s got the rest of Europe playing by his rules.

Looking at the current situation, three things are clear to me:

• Gas as a Geopolitical Weapon: Shutting off the gas to Ukraine shows that energy security remains the ultimate currency in Eastern European politics. Orbán is testing the limits of how far he can push both Kyiv and Brussels before there’s any backlash.
• History Repeating Itself: From the time of Franz Joseph to today, Hungary’s leaders have seen themselves as guardians of a national interest that often clashes with the outside world. Orbán has perfected this narrative, dressing it up in a modern, authoritarian aesthetic.
• The Shadow of the EU Elections: All his current manoeuvres are calculated with an eye on the power balance in Strasbourg. He knows that a weakened EU gives him more room to solidify his own system in Hungary.

As we stand here in March 2026, it’s worth remembering that gas isn’t the only thing in short supply in the region. So is trust. Trust that the old rules of the game still hold. Viktor Orbán has built his career on exploiting these gaps in the system. He’s studied history – and his own version of “How to Be a Dictator” – thoroughly. The question now is whether the rest of Europe has finally read the same book, or if we’ll continue to be caught off guard every time he pushes the red button.