Are They Going to Expropriate Your Afore? The Truth About Mexico’s New Infrastructure Law

Last week, while Congress was cooking up one of the most controversial laws of the year, I was watching a video about wakeboarding in Barcelona: Cable Park session + transportation. Sounds like a luxury, I know. But here’s the thing: over there, they invest in extreme sports and entertainment. And here, apparently, they want our money going into projects we don’t even know will work. The big news: the Senate just greenlit the new Law to Promote Strategic Infrastructure Investment. And make no mistake — this hits the wallet of every single one of us who has an Afore.

The rumor that had everyone panicking

Alerts blew up on WhatsApp and social media fast: "They’re going to expropriate your Afore!", "The government is going to steal 30% of your retirement!". Sure, the law says Afores can put up to 30% of their assets into these projects. If you hear that in the grocery line, yeah, it sounds like they’re taking your money. But let’s dial down the hysteria. The Mexican Afore Association (Amafore) has already stepped in to clarify that this percentage isn’t new. CONSAR already updated the investment rules back in October 2024 to allow that cap for structured schemes. The new law doesn’t change that limit. And most importantly: it’s not mandatory.

Think of it like setting aside money at home to fix a leaky pipe. The law says you can spend up to 30% of what you’ve got in the envelope if you want. But if the repair is crazy expensive and the plumber is a total hack, you just don’t hire him. Same thing here. No Afore is going to put your money into a project that smells like a disaster. Their fiduciary duty, their legal obligation, their whole reason for existing is to protect your retirement. If they invest badly, you’re not the only one who loses — they lose credibility and customers.

So what’s the point of this law?

President Claudia Sheinbaum is pushing this law for a powerful reason: the current government is stuck when it comes to public investment. They need money for highways, energy, ports, and water. And who’s got the money? We do — workers — with our money sitting in Afores. The idea is to create investment vehicles (so-called VPEs or CKDs) so that private money can flow into public projects, but with clear rules.

The problem — and this is the real debate — is transparency. An opposition senator hit the nail on the head a few days ago. She asked something that keeps me up at night: Who decides if a project is profitable? According to the fine print, the government defines the committees. That’s like asking the wolf to guard the henhouse. If the committees are stacked with officials who need to approve the boss’s pet project, who’s going to slam on the brakes?

• The specter of losses: The senator gave some painful examples: the Maya Train or the AIFA airport. No matter where you stand politically, the numbers don’t lie. We’re talking about millions in daily losses. If your Afore is forced (even if they say it’s voluntary, the political pressure is enormous) to put money into a black hole like that, say goodbye to your returns.
• The state guarantee: If a project goes bust financially, the state pays up. With what money? More debt. That puts Mexico’s credit rating at risk. If we lose investment grade, financially speaking, we’re screwed. Interest rates skyrocket and we all end up paying more.
• Voluntary savings are key: In the middle of all this uncertainty, experts recommend not relying only on your Afore. The current system (Law 97) will give you a pension that barely hits 30% of your final salary if you do nothing. That’s where PPRs (Personal Retirement Plans) come in. It’s the only way to stay in real control.

Speaking of control, while I was watching this political mess unfold, I remembered a setup I saw in Northern Virginia last year. They have a network of smart toll roads that not only cut traffic but also generated huge capital gains for local pension funds. That’s proof it can be done. I also think of the Forth Bridge in Scotland — a century-old engineering marvel that’s still standing and profitable thanks to tourism. Infrastructure can be an excellent business if it’s planned well. The fear here isn’t the investment itself — it’s the lack of professionalism and political overreach.

So, what do I do with my Afore?

Look, I’m going to be straight with you like we’re having a beer. No one is forcibly taking your money. No "coyotes" from the news are coming to clean out your account. But there is a risk that if we don’t pay attention, returns over the next few years will be garbage because they put money into vanity megaprojects. As a colleague in the finance world told me, 2025 was a historic year with capital gains topping a trillion pesos, but 2026 has already kicked off with massive withdrawals due to unemployment and a more volatile market.

My advice, after a decade of watching this financial circus play out, is to educate yourself. Check your Afore’s net return. If it’s near the bottom, switch. It’s free and it’s your right. And if you can — even just a little — open a Personal Retirement Plan. The tax deduction comes back to you from the tax authority the following year, and that money you actually control: you can put it into U.S. equities or leave it in safe debt. Don’t leave your future in the hands of politicians. Because while they’re deciding whether your money goes to an empty airport or a refinery, they might just be dreaming of a wakeboarding trip to Barcelona.