Are your Afores about to be expropriated? The truth about Mexico’s new infrastructure law

Last week, while one of the most controversial laws of the year was being cooked up in Congress, I was watching a video of wakeboarding in Barcelona: cable park session + transfers. Sounds like a luxury, I know. But here’s the thing: over there they invest in extreme sports and entertainment, and here, it seems, they want our money to go into projects we don’t even know will work. The news of the day is that the Senate has given the green light to the new Law for the Promotion of Investment in Strategic Infrastructure. And make no mistake – this is big. It affects the pockets of every single one of us who has an Afore.

The rumour that got everyone worried

Alerts quickly spread on WhatsApp and social media: “They’re going to expropriate your Afore!”, “The government is going to steal 30% of your retirement!”. Sure, the law mentions that Afores can allocate up to 30% of their resources to these projects. If you hear that in the supermarket queue, yes, it sounds like they’ve taken our money. But let’s dial down the hysteria. The Mexican Association of Afores (Amafore) has already come out to clarify that this percentage isn’t new. Consar already updated the investment regime in October 2024 to allow that cap for structured schemes. The new law doesn’t change that limit, and most importantly: it’s not compulsory.

Think of it like putting money aside at home to fix a leaky pipe. The law says you can spend up to 30% of what you have in the envelope if you want to. But if the repair costs a fortune and the plumber’s a charlatan, you simply don’t hire him. Same here. No Afore is going to put your money into a project that smells like a flop. Their fiduciary duty, their legal obligation and their very reason for existing is to protect your retirement. If they invest badly, you’re not the only one who loses; they lose prestige and customers.

So what’s the point of this law?

President Claudia Sheinbaum is pushing this law for a compelling reason: the current government is struggling with public investment. They need money for roads, energy, ports and water. And who has the money? We do – workers – sitting in our Afores. The idea is to create investment vehicles (so-called VPEs or CKDs) so that private money can go into public projects, but with clear rules.

The problem, and this is where the real debate lies, is transparency. An opposition senator hit the nail on the head a few days ago. She asked something that keeps me up at night: Who decides if a project is profitable? According to the small print, the government defines the committees. It’s like asking the wolf to guard the henhouse. If the committees are full of officials who need to sign off on the boss’s pet project, who puts the brakes on?

• The spectre of losses: The senator gave painful examples: the Tren Maya or the AIFA airport. No matter which side of the political fence you’re on, the numbers don’t lie. We’re talking about millions in daily losses. If your Afore is forced (even if they say it’s not, the political pressure is huge) to put money into a black hole like that, say goodbye to returns.
• The state guarantee: If the project goes bust financially, the state pays. With what money? More debt. This puts Mexico’s credit rating at risk. If we lose investment grade, in financial terms, we’re screwed. Interest rates soar and we all end up paying more.
• Voluntary savings are the key: Amid all this uncertainty, experts recommend not relying solely on your Afore. The current system (Law 97) will give us a pension that barely reaches 30% of our final salary if we do nothing. That’s where PPRs (Personal Retirement Plans) come in. It’s the only way to have real control.

Speaking of having control, while watching the political mess, I remembered a setup I saw in Northern Virginia last year. Over there they have a network of smart toll roads that not only eased traffic congestion but also generated huge capital gains for local pension funds. That’s proof it can be done. Also comes to mind the Forth Bridge in Scotland – a century-old engineering feat that’s still standing and profitable through tourism. Infrastructure can be an excellent business if it’s planned well. The fear here isn’t investment itself; it’s the lack of professionalism and excessive political meddling.

So, what do I do with my Afore?

Look, I’ll be honest with you, as if we were having a pint. They’re not going to forcibly take your money. No “coyotes” as mentioned in the news are going to steal your account. But there is a risk that if we don’t pay attention, returns over the next few years will be rubbish because they’ll put the money into vanity projects. As a colleague from the financial sector told me, 2025 was a historic year with capital gains of over a trillion pesos, but 2026 has already started with massive withdrawals due to unemployment and a more volatile market.

My advice, after a decade of watching this financial circus play out, is to educate yourself. Check your Afore’s net return. If it’s near the bottom, switch. It’s free and it’s your right. And if you can, even just a little, open a Personal Retirement Plan (PPR). The tax deduction comes back to you from HMRC (the SAT) the following year, and that money you do control: you can put it into variable income in the US or leave it in secure debt. Don’t leave your future in the hands of politicians. Because while they decide whether your money goes to an empty airport or a refinery, they might just be dreaming of a wakeboarding trip to Barcelona.