Are your retirement savings at risk? The truth behind Mexico’s new infrastructure law

Last week, while Congress was cooking up one of the most controversial laws of the year, I was watching a video about wakeboarding in Barcelona: Cable Park session + transfer. Sounds like a luxury, I know. But here's the thing: over there, they invest in extreme sports and entertainment. And here, it seems, they want our money to go into projects we don’t even know will work. The big news is that the Senate has greenlit the new Law for the Promotion of Investment in Strategic Infrastructure. And make no mistake – this affects the pocket of every single one of us with an Afore.

The rumour that shook people up

Alerts flew fast on WhatsApp and social media: "They're going to seize your Afore!", "The government is going to steal 30% of your retirement!". Sure, the law mentions that Afores can allocate up to 30% of their funds to these projects. If you hear that in the supermarket queue, yes, it sounds like they've taken your money. But let's dial down the hysteria. The Mexican Afore Association (Amafore) has already stepped in to clarify that this percentage isn't new. Consar had already updated the investment rules back in October 2024 to allow that limit for structured schemes. The new law doesn't change that limit, and most importantly: it's not mandatory.

Think of it like this: you've set aside money at home to fix a leaky pipe. The law says you can spend up to 30% of what you have in the envelope if you want. But if the repair is crazy expensive and the plumber is a con artist, you simply don't hire him. Same deal here. No Afore is going to put your money into a project that smells like a failure. Their fiduciary duty, their legal obligation, and their very reason for existing is to protect your retirement. If they invest badly, you're not the only one who loses – they lose reputation and clients.

So what's the point of this law?

President Claudia Sheinbaum is pushing this law for a solid reason: the current government is hitting a wall with public investment. They need money for roads, energy, ports, and water. And who has the money? Us, the workers, sitting in our Afores. The idea is to create investment vehicles (so-called VPEs or CKDs) so that private money can flow into public projects, but with clear rules.

The problem, and this is where the real debate lies, is transparency. An opposition senator hit the nail on the head a few days ago. She asked something that keeps me up at night: Who decides if a project is profitable? According to the fine print, the committees are defined by the government. That's like asking the wolf to guard the henhouse. If the committees are packed with officials who need to approve the boss's pet project, who puts the brakes on?

• The ghost of losses: The senator gave painful examples: the Maya Train or the new Mexico City airport (AIFA). No matter which side of the political fence you're on, the numbers don't lie. We're talking about millions in daily losses. If your Afore is forced (even if they say it's not mandatory, the political pressure is enormous) to put money into a hole like that, goodbye returns.
• The state guarantee: If a project goes bust financially, the state pays up. With what money? More debt. This puts Mexico's credit rating at risk. If we lose investment grade, financially speaking, we're screwed. Interest rates skyrocket and we all end up paying more.
• Voluntary savings are the key: Amid this uncertainty, experts recommend not relying solely on your Afore. The current system (Law 97) will give you a pension that barely reaches 30% of your final salary if you do nothing. That's where PPRs (Personal Retirement Plans) come in. It's the only way to have real control.

Speaking of control, while watching this political mess, I remembered a setup I saw in Northern Virginia last year. They have a network of smart toll roads that not only eased traffic congestion but also generated huge capital gains for local pension funds. That's proof it can be done. I also think of the Forth Bridge in Scotland, a century-old engineering marvel that still stands and turns a profit through tourism. Infrastructure can be an excellent business if planned properly. The fear here isn't investment itself – it's the lack of professionalism and political overregulation.

So, what do I do with my Afore?

Look, I'll be straight with you, like we're having a beer. They're not going to forcibly take your money. No 'coyotes' as mentioned in the news are going to steal your account. But there is a risk that if we don't pay attention, the returns over the next few years will be rubbish because they dump the money into vanity projects. As a colleague in the finance industry told me, 2025 was a historic year with capital gains of over a trillion pesos, but 2026 has already started with mass withdrawals due to unemployment and a more volatile market.

My advice, after a decade of watching this financial circus play out, is to educate yourself. Check your Afore's net return. If it's near the bottom, switch. It's free and it's your right. And if you can, even just a little, open a Personal Retirement Plan. The tax deduction comes back to you from the tax office the following year, and you get to decide where that money goes: you can put it into equities in the US or leave it in safe debt. Don't leave your future in the hands of politicians. Because while they decide whether your money goes to an empty airport or a refinery, they might just be dreaming of a wakeboarding trip to Barcelona.