Are your retirement funds being seized? The truth about Mexico's new infrastructure law

Last week, while one of the year's most controversial laws was being cooked up in Congress, I was watching a video about wakeboarding in Barcelona: cable park session + transfer. Sounds like a luxury, I know. But here's the funny thing: over there, they're investing in extreme sports and entertainment, while here, it seems they want our money to go into projects we don't even know will work. The big news is that the Senate has given the green light to the new Law to Promote Investment in Strategic Infrastructure. And make no mistake, this is a big deal. It affects the pockets of every single one of us who has an Afore.

The rumour that made a lot of people nervous

Alerts quickly spread on WhatsApp and social media: "They're going to seize your Afore!", "The government is going to steal 30% of your retirement!" Sure, the law mentions that Afores can allocate up to 30% of their assets to these projects. If you hear that in the grocery store lineup, yeah, it sounds like they're taking our money. But let's calm the hysteria. The Mexican Association of Afores (Amafore) has already stepped in to clarify that this percentage isn't new. CONSAR had already updated the investment rules back in October 2024 to allow that cap for structured products. The new law doesn't change that limit, and most importantly: it's not mandatory.

Think of it like this: you've set aside some cash at home to fix a leaky pipe. The law says you can spend up to 30% of that envelope if you want. But if the repair is crazy expensive and the plumber is a total hack, you just don't hire him. Same thing here. No Afore is going to put your money into a project that smells like a failure. Their fiduciary duty, their legal obligation, and their whole reason for existing is to protect your retirement. If they make a bad investment, it's not just you who loses—they lose reputation and clients.

So what's the point of this law?

President Claudia Sheinbaum is pushing this law for one major reason: the current government is hitting a wall with public investment. They need money for highways, energy, ports, and water. And who has the money? We do, the workers, sitting in our Afores. The idea is to create investment vehicles (so-called VPEs or CKDs) so that private money can flow into public projects, but with clear rules.

The problem—and this is where the real debate lies—is transparency. An opposition senator hit the nail on the head a few days ago. She asked something that keeps me up at night: Who decides if a project is profitable? According to the fine print, the committees are defined by the government. That's like asking the fox to guard the henhouse. If the committees are packed with officials who need to approve the boss's pet project, who puts on the brakes?

• The spectre of losses: The senator gave some painful examples: the Maya Train or the AIFA airport. No matter where you stand politically, the numbers don't lie. We're talking about millions in daily losses. If your Afore is forced (even if they say it's not mandatory, the political pressure is huge) to pour money into a black hole like that, say goodbye to returns.
• The government backstop: If a project goes bust financially, the state pays up. With what money? More debt. This puts Mexico's credit rating at risk. If we lose investment-grade status, financially speaking, we're in deep trouble. Interest rates would skyrocket, and we'd all end up paying the price.
• Voluntary savings are key: In the midst of this uncertainty, experts recommend not relying solely on your Afore. The current system (1997 law) will give you a pension that barely reaches 30% of your final salary if you do nothing. That's where PPRs (Personal Retirement Plans) come in. It's the only way to have real control.

Speaking of control, while watching this political mess unfold, I remembered a setup I saw in Northern Virginia last year. They have a network of smart toll roads that not only reduced traffic congestion but also generated huge added value for local pension funds. It's proof that it can be done. I'm also thinking of the Forth Bridge in Scotland, a century-old engineering marvel that still stands and is profitable through tourism. Infrastructure can be an excellent business if it's planned well. The fear here isn't the investment itself—it's the lack of professionalism and excessive political meddling.

So, what do I do with my Afore?

Look, I'm going to be straight with you, like we're having a beer. They're not going to forcibly take your money. Those so-called "coyotes" you see in the news aren't coming to steal your account. But there is a risk that if we don't pay attention, returns over the next few years could be garbage because they pour money into grandiose, white-elephant projects. As a colleague in the finance world told me, 2025 was a historic year with capital gains over a trillion pesos, but 2026 has already started with massive withdrawals due to unemployment and a more volatile market.

My advice, after a decade of watching this financial circus play out, is to educate yourself. Check your Afore's net return. If it's near the bottom, switch. It's free and it's your right. And if you can, even just a little, open a Personal Retirement Plan. The tax deduction comes back to you from the tax agency the following year, and you get to decide where that money goes: you can put it into US equities or keep it in secure debt. Don't leave your future in the hands of politicians. Because while they're deciding whether your money goes to an empty airport or a refinery, they might just be dreaming of a wakeboarding trip to Barcelona.