Morten Messerschmidt lays down the law: He'll sink a blue alliance government if it won't curb Muslim immigration

There's something refreshingly old-school about it. Right in the middle of an election campaign where everyone else is talking in circles and leaving doors ajar, Morten Messerschmidt is slamming his shut. With a bang loud enough to be heard all the way in Troels Lund Poulsen's office.

While the prime ministerial candidates from Venstre and the Liberal Alliance are locked in a fierce battle to appear the most stateman-like, the DF leader has done something few dare to these days: He's issued an ultimatum. Not one of those "we'll go into negotiations with a clear priority" kind of things. A real one. One where he promises to sink the whole ship if he doesn't get his way.

A demand that divides opinions

The demand is as blunt as the man himself: There must be more Muslim immigrants leaving Denmark than entering. In other words, a straight-up net outflow. And this isn't just a wish; it's a non-negotiable condition for even nominating a prime minister from the blue bloc.

It even made the usually unflappable Alex Vanopslagh from the Liberal Alliance raise an eyebrow. Because while the Liberal Alliance is keen on tightening immigration policy, there are limits. "I don't have a desire for people to leave Denmark just because they are Muslim," Vanopslagh remarked dryly, while also reminding everyone that we actually have religious freedom here – and that many Muslim hands work in the elder care sector, people we can't exactly do without.

But Messerschmidt is ice-cold in his responses. For him, it's about something more fundamental. "People with deep-seated Islamic beliefs who think homosexuals should be stoned don't belong here, no matter how much they work," he said over the weekend, stressing that employment isn't a get-out-of-jail-free card.

Troels Lund's headache

For Venstre's Troels Lund Poulsen, the timing couldn't be worse. Here he is, trying to unite the blue bloc around a project that appears cohesive and fit for government – and then DF comes along and pulls the rug out with a demand that splits opinions. When the press tried to get a comment from the Venstre leader, he refused to appear. Instead, he sent Morten Dahlin out. And he, of course, wasn't about to entertain ultimatums.

Troels Lund's problem is twofold. First, a demand like this scares away the more moderate voters. Second, he risks ending up with a mandate after the election that makes him completely dependent on DF – and therefore on Messerschmidt's whims. This is precisely the nightmare that the old VLAK coalition days should have taught Venstre to fear.

Why is he doing this?

Ask the seasoned advisors at Christiansborg, and they'll say there's a method to the madness. Morten Messerschmidt is playing a high-stakes game to maximise votes. Not too long ago, the Danish People's Party was in a real fight for survival. That fight is won, but to become a major player again, the party needs to make its mark.

• He wants to profile himself: In an election dominated by economy and welfare, immigration policy needs to be carved into hard-hitting optics to cut through.
• He learns from history: DF was itself the largest liberal party from 2015-2019 but never entered government. He doesn't want to repeat that mistake.
• He's going for influence: Either he gets his way and can set the agenda from within. Or he stands as the principled fighter who refused to compromise. It's a win-win for him.

And then there's the Greenland factor. Just a year ago, Messerschmidt was trying to get a foot in the door with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to talk about the Arctic. Back then, the talk was about having an "adult conversation" with the Americans. Today, with threats becoming more direct, the tone is completely different. He's learned that you don't negotiate with a man who threatens military force. It shows a politician who can change course when reality shifts.

The Lidegaard lawsuit simmers in the background

While the election campaign rages on, a court showdown awaits this summer. Morten Messerschmidt has sued the Radical Liberal Party's Martin Lidegaard for defamation. At a debate, Lidegaard said that Messerschmidt's repatriation policies target people based on skin colour. The DF leader considers that a slander of his character.

The case goes to court on August 18th, and it shows there's personal animosity at play here. Messerschmidt has previously said he "rules out nothing in politics except making Lars Løkke Rasmussen a minister." Lidegaard has apparently landed on the same list. When things get personal, they rarely get prettier.

What now?

Right now, it looks like a Gordian knot. Morten Messerschmidt is firmly in the saddle, and he's ready to shoot from the hip. "If the government doesn't deliver on the demand, we'll topple it. No messing about," he said over the weekend.

The question is whether Troels Lund Poulsen and Alex Vanopslagh can find a way out that saves face while keeping the blue bloc together. Or if we're headed for a repeat of 2015, where ultimatums ended up costing everyone dearly. For now, Morten Messerschmidt has at least secured one thing: We're talking about the Danish People's Party. And that was probably the point all along.