Morten Messerschmidt draws a line in the sand: Will bring down a centre-right government without a crackdown on Muslim immigration

There's something refreshingly old-school about it. Right in the middle of an election campaign where everyone else is speaking in code and leaving doors slightly ajar, Morten Messerschmidt has gone and slammed his shut. With a bang loud enough to be heard all the way from Troels Lund Poulsen's office.

While the Prime Ministerial hopefuls from the Liberal Party and Liberal Alliance are locked in a fierce battle to appear the most stateman-like, the DF leader has done something few dare to these days: He's issued an ultimatum. Not one of those "we're going into negotiations with a clear priority" kind of things. A real one. The kind where he promises to bring the whole lot down if he doesn't get his way.

A demand that divides opinion

The demand is as blunt as the man himself: More Muslims must leave Denmark than enter it. In other words, a definitive net reduction. And it's not just a wish list item, it's a non-negotiable condition for even nominating a centre-right Prime Minister.

It even made the usually unflappable Alex Vanopslagh from Liberal Alliance raise an eyebrow. Because while LA is keen to tighten immigration policy, there are limits. "I don't want people to have to leave Denmark just because they're Muslim," Vanopslagh said dryly, reminding everyone that we actually have religious freedom here – and that many hands in the aged care sector belong to Muslims, hands we can't exactly do without.

But Messerschmidt is ice-cold in his response. For him, it's about something more fundamental. "People with deeply Islamic leanings who believe homosexuals should be stoned don't belong here, no matter how much they work," he said over the weekend, stressing that having a job isn't a free pass.

Troels Lund's headache

For the Liberal Party's Troels Lund Poulsen, the timing couldn't possibly be worse. Here he is, trying to unite the centre-right bloc behind a project that looks unified and capable of governing – and then DF comes along and pulls the rug out with a wedge issue. When the press tried to get a comment from the Liberal leader, he refused to front. Instead, he sent Morten Dahlin out to bat. And he, naturally, wasn't about to entertain ultimatums.

Troels Lund's problem is twofold. First, a demand like this scares off the more moderate voters. Second, he risks ending up in a position post-election where he's completely dependent on DF – and therefore on Messerschmidt's whims. It's precisely the kind of nightmare the old VLAK government days should have taught the Liberal Party to fear.

Why is he doing this?

Ask the seasoned advisers around Christiansborg, and they'll tell you there's method in the madness. Morten Messerschmidt is playing a high-stakes game to maximise votes. Not so long ago, the Danish People's Party was in an outright fight for survival. That battle is won, but to become a major player again, the party needs to make its mark.

• He's staking out his territory: In an election dominated by the economy and welfare, immigration policy needs to be framed in hard-hitting terms to cut through.
• He's learned from history: DF was the largest centre-right party from 2015-2019 but ended up outside government. He's not about to make that mistake again.
• He's playing for influence: Either he gets his way and can set the agenda from within. Or he stands as the principled fighter who refused to compromise. It's a win-win for him.

And then there's the Greenland factor. Just a year ago, Messerschmidt was trying to get a foot in the door at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago to talk about the Arctic. Back then, we needed a "mature conversation" with the Americans. Today, with threats becoming more direct, the tone is completely different. He's learned you don't negotiate with a man who threatens military force. It shows a politician who can change tack when reality shifts.

The Lidegaard defamation case simmers in the background

As the election campaign rages on, a court showdown awaits this summer. Morten Messerschmidt is suing the Radical Party's Martin Lidegaard for defamation. Lidegaard said at a debate that Messerschmidt's repatriation policy targets people based on skin colour. The DF leader claims this is a slur on his reputation.

The case goes to court on August 18th, and it's a sign of the personal animosity at play here. Messerschmidt has previously said he "rules nothing out in politics except making Lars Løkke Rasmussen a minister". Lidegaard has apparently been added to that list. When things get personal, they rarely get prettier.

What now?

Right now, it looks like a Gordian knot. Morten Messerschmidt has dug his heels in, and he's ready to fire. "If the government doesn't deliver on the demand, we'll bring it down. No messing about," he said over the weekend.

The question is whether Troels Lund Poulsen and Alex Vanopslagh can find a way out that saves face and keeps the centre-right bloc together. Or if we're heading for a repeat of 2015, where hardline demands ended up costing everyone dearly. For now, Morten Messerschmidt has at least achieved one thing: We're talking about the Danish People's Party. And that was probably the point all along.