Morten Messerschmidt draws a line in the sand: Will topple a coalition government that won't take on Muslim immigration

There’s something refreshingly old-school about it. Right in the middle of an election campaign where everyone else is talking in circles and leaving doors ajar, Morten Messerschmidt has slammed his shut. With a bang loud enough to be heard all the way into Troels Lund Poulsen’s office.

While the Prime Ministerial hopefuls from Venstre and the Liberal Alliance are locked in a fierce battle to appear the most stately and responsible, the DF leader has done something few dare to these days: he's issued an ultimatum. Not one of those "we'll go into negotiations with clear priorities" kind of things. A real one. One where he promises to bring the whole lot down if he doesn't get his way.

A demand that splits opinion

The demand is as blunt as the man himself: More Muslims must leave Denmark than enter it. A genuine net outflow. And this isn't just a wish list item; it's a non-negotiable condition for even nominating a centre-right Prime Minister.

It was enough to raise an eyebrow from the usually laid-back Alex Vanopslagh from the Liberal Alliance. While LA is keen to tighten immigration policy, there are limits. "I don't want people to have to leave Denmark just because they're Muslim," Vanopslagh said drily, reminding everyone that we actually have freedom of religion here – and that many Muslim workers in the aged care sector are pretty hard to do without.

But Messerschmidt is ice-cold in his response. For him, it's about something more fundamental. "People with deeply Islamic dispositions who believe homosexuals should be stoned don't belong here, no matter how much they work," he said over the weekend, stressing that having a job isn't a free pass.

Troels Lund's headache

For Venstre's Troels Lund Poulsen, the timing couldn't be much worse. Here he is, trying to unite the blue bloc around a project that looks cohesive and ready for government – and then DF comes along and pulls the rug out with a demand that drives a wedge right through the middle. When the press tried to get a comment from the Venstre leader, he wouldn't front up at all. Instead, he sent Morten Dahlin out to bat. And he certainly wasn't about to entertain ultimatums.

Troels Lund's problem is twofold. First, a demand like this scares off the more moderate voters. Second, he risks ending up with a result after the election that makes him completely dependent on DF – and therefore at the mercy of Messerschmidt's whims. It's the exact nightmare that the old VLAK coalition days should have taught Venstre to fear.

Why is he doing it?

Ask the old hands around Christiansborg, and they'll tell you there's method in the madness. Morten Messerschmidt is playing a high-stakes game to maximise his vote. Not so long ago, the Danish People's Party was in an outright survival battle. That fight is won, but to become a major player again, the party needs to carve out a distinct position.

• He wants to stand out: In an election dominated by the economy and welfare, immigration policy needs to be framed in stark, uncompromising terms to cut through.
• He's learned from history: DF was the largest centre-right party from 2015 to 2019 but ended up outside government. He's not about to make that mistake again.
• He's after influence: Either he gets his way and can set the agenda from within. Or he stands as the principled champion who refused to compromise. It's a win-win for him.

And then there's the Greenland factor. Just a year ago, Messerschmidt was trying to get a foot in the door with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to talk about the Arctic. Back then, we needed a "mature conversation" with the Americans. Now, with threats getting more direct, his tone is completely different. He's learned you don't negotiate with someone who threatens military force. It shows a politician who can change course when the reality on the ground shifts.

The Lidegaard defamation case simmers in the background

As the election campaign charges on, there's also a court showdown waiting in the wings this summer. Morten Messerschmidt is suing the Radikale's Martin Lidegaard for defamation. Lidegaard said at a debate that Messerschmidt's repatriation policies effectively target people based on skin colour. The DF leader considers that a slur on his character.

The case is set for court on August 18th, and it's a sign that there's personal animosity at play here. Messerschmidt has previously said he "rules nothing out in politics, except making Lars Løkke Rasmussen a minister." Lidegaard seems to have earned a spot on that same list. When it gets personal, it rarely gets any prettier.

What now?

Right now, it looks like a real Gordian knot. Morten Messerschmidt is firmly in the saddle, and he's ready to fire. "If the government doesn't deliver on this demand, we'll bring it down. No messing about," he said over the weekend.

The question is whether Troels Lund Poulsen and Alex Vanopslagh can find a way out that saves face and keeps the blue bloc together. Or if we're headed for a repeat of 2015, where ultimatums ended up costing everyone dearly. For now, Morten Messerschmidt has at least secured one thing: we're talking about the Danish People's Party. And that was probably the whole point.