Morten Messerschmidt lays down the law: Will topple a centre-right government if it doesn't curb Muslim immigration

There's something refreshingly old-school about it. Right in the middle of an election campaign where everyone else is speaking in vague terms and leaving doors slightly ajar, Morten Messerschmidt is slamming his shut. With a bang that echoes all the way to Troels Lund Poulsen's office.

While the prime ministerial candidates from the Liberal Party (Venstre) and the Liberal Alliance are locked in a fierce battle to appear the most stateman-like, the DF leader has done something few dare to these days: he's issued an ultimatum. Not one of those "we'll go into negotiations with clear priorities" kind of things. A real one. One where he promises to bring the whole damn thing down if he doesn't get his way.

A demand that divides opinion

The demand is as blunt as the man himself: More Muslim immigrants must leave Denmark than enter it. In other words, a straight-up net out-migration. And this isn't just a wish, it's a non-negotiable condition for even supporting a centre-right prime minister.

This even made the usually laid-back Alex Vanopslagh from the Liberal Alliance raise an eyebrow. Because while the Liberal Alliance is all for tightening immigration policy, there are limits. "I don't want people to have to leave Denmark just because they're Muslim," Vanopslagh said dryly, reminding everyone that we actually have freedom of religion here – and that many Muslim workers are in the elder care sector, people we simply can't do without.

But Messerschmidt is ice-cold in his responses. For him, it's about something more fundamental. "People with deeply Islamist beliefs, who think homosexuals should be stoned, don't belong here, no matter how much they work," he said over the weekend, stressing that employment isn't a free pass.

Troels Lund's headache

For Venstre's Troels Lund Poulsen, the timing couldn't be worse. Here he is, trying to unite the centre-right bloc around a project that appears unified and ready for government – and then DF pulls the rug out from under him with a demand that divides everyone. When the press tried to get a comment from the Venstre leader, he refused to show up. Instead, he sent Morten Dahlin out. And he, of course, wasn't going to entertain any ultimatums.

Troels Lund's problem is twofold. First, a demand like this scares away more moderate voters. Second, he risks ending up after the election with a mandate that makes him completely dependent on DF – and therefore on Messerschmidt's whims. This is precisely the nightmare that the old VLAK coalition days should have taught Venstre to fear.

Why is he doing this?

If you ask the seasoned advisors at Christiansborg, there's a method to the madness. Morten Messerschmidt is playing a high-stakes game to maximize votes. Not long ago, the Danish People's Party was in a real fight for survival. That fight is won, but to become a major player again, the party needs to make its mark.

• He wants to stand out: In an election dominated by the economy and welfare, immigration policy needs to be framed in stark, hard-hitting terms to cut through the noise.
• He's learned from history: DF was the largest centre-right party from 2015 to 2019 but still didn't get into government. He doesn't want to repeat that mistake.
• He's going for influence: Either he gets his way and can set the agenda from within. Or he stands as the principled champion who wouldn't compromise. It's a win-win for him.

And then there's the Greenland factor. Just a year ago, Messerschmidt was trying to get a foot in the door with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to talk about the Arctic. Back then, we were supposed to have a "grown-up conversation" with the Americans. Today, with threats becoming more direct, his tone is completely different. He's learned that you don't negotiate with a man who threatens military force. It shows a politician who can indeed change course when reality shifts.

The lawsuit against Lidegaard simmers in the background

As the election campaign rages on, a court showdown awaits this summer. Morten Messerschmidt has sued the Radical Party's (Radikale Venstre) Martin Lidegaard for defamation. Lidegaard said at a debate that Messerschmidt's repatriation policies target people based on the colour of their skin. The DF leader considers that a slanderous insult to his character.

The case goes to court on August 18th, and it shows there's a personal vendetta at play here. Messerschmidt has previously said he "rules nothing out in politics except making Lars Løkke Rasmussen a minister." Lidegaard has apparently made it onto that same list. When things get personal, they rarely get prettier.

What now?

Right now, it looks like a Gordian knot. Morten Messerschmidt has dug in his heels, and he's ready to fire live rounds. "If the government doesn't deliver on this demand, we'll topple it. No messing around," he said over the weekend.

The question is whether Troels Lund Poulsen and Alex Vanopslagh can find a way out that saves face while keeping the centre-right bloc together. Or if we're headed for a repeat of 2015, where ultimatums ended up costing everyone dearly. For now, Morten Messerschmidt has secured one thing: we're talking about the Danish People's Party. And that was probably the whole point.