Morten Messerschmidt draws a line in the sand: He'll bring down a centre-right government that won't tackle Muslim immigration

There's something refreshingly old-school about it. Right in the middle of an election campaign where everyone else is talking in circles and leaving doors slightly ajar, Morten Messerschmidt goes and slams his shut. With a bang loud enough to be heard all the way into Troels Lund Poulsen's office.

While the Prime Ministerial candidates from Venstre and the Liberal Alliance are locked in a bitter struggle to appear the most stateman-like, the DF leader has done something few dare to these days: He's issued an ultimatum. Not one of those "we'll go into negotiations with a clear priority" kind of things. A real one. One where he promises to bring the whole lot down if he doesn't get his way.

A demand that divides opinion

The demand is as blunt as the man himself: There must be more Muslim immigrants leaving Denmark than entering it. In other words, an outright net outflow. And this isn't just a wish, it's a non-negotiable condition for even considering supporting a centre-right Prime Minister.

It even made the usually unflappable Alex Vanopslagh from the Liberal Alliance raise an eyebrow. Because while the Liberal Alliance is keen to tighten immigration policy, there are limits. "I don't have a desire for people to leave Denmark just because they're Muslim," Vanopslagh stated drily, while also reminding everyone that we actually have religious freedom here – and that many Muslim hands work in the elderly care sector, hands we can't exactly do without.

But Messerschmidt is ice-cold in his responses. For him, it's about something more fundamental. "People with a deep-rooted Islamic disposition who believe homosexuals should be stoned do not belong here, no matter how much they work," he said over the weekend, stressing that employment is not a free pass.

Troels Lund's headache

For Venstre's Troels Lund Poulsen, the timing couldn't be much worse. Here he is, trying to unite the blue bloc around a project that needs to appear cohesive and ready for government – and then DF comes along and pulls the rug from under them with a deeply divisive demand. When the press tried to get a comment from the Venstre leader, he wouldn't even show up. Instead, he sent Morten Dahlin out to bat. And he, naturally, wasn't about to entertain ultimatums.

Troels Lund's problem is twofold. Firstly, a demand like this scares off the more moderate voters. Secondly, he risks ending up after the election with a parliamentary arithmetic that makes him completely dependent on DF – and therefore on Messerschmidt's whims. It's precisely the kind of nightmare that the old VLAK coalition days should have taught Venstre to fear.

Why is he doing this?

If you ask the old hands at Christiansborg, there's a method to the madness. Morten Messerschmidt is playing a high-stakes game to maximise votes. Not so long ago, the Danish People's Party was in a real fight for survival. That fight has been won, but to become a major player again, the party needs to make its mark.

• He wants to stand out: In an election dominated by economy and welfare, immigration policy needs to be framed in stark, uncompromising terms to cut through.
• He's learned from history: DF was itself the largest centre-right party from 2015-2019 but didn't get into government. He doesn't want to repeat that mistake.
• He's going for influence: Either he gets his way and can set the agenda from within. Or he stands as the principled fighter who refused to compromise. It's a win-win for him.

And then there's the matter of Greenland. Just a year ago, Messerschmidt was trying to get his foot in the door with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss the Arctic. Back then, we were supposed to have a "grown-up conversation" with the Americans. Today, with threats becoming more direct, the tone is completely different. He's learned you don't negotiate with a man who threatens military action. It shows a politician who can change course when reality shifts.

The Lidegaard lawsuit simmers in the background

As the election campaign rages on, a courtroom showdown awaits this summer. Morten Messerschmidt is suing the Radical Party's Martin Lidegaard for defamation. Lidegaard said at a debate that Messerschmidt's repatriation policy targets people based on the colour of their skin. The DF leader considers this a slur on his honour.

The case goes to court on August 18th, and it's a sign that there's personal animosity at play here. Messerschmidt has previously said he "rules nothing out in politics except making Lars Løkke Rasmussen a minister." Lidegaard has apparently ended up on the same list. When it gets personal, it rarely gets prettier.

What now?

Right now, it looks like a Gordian knot. Morten Messerschmidt is firmly in the saddle and ready to shoot from the hip. "If the government doesn't deliver on the demand, we'll bring it down. No messing," he said over the weekend.

The question is whether Troels Lund Poulsen and Alex Vanopslagh can find a way out that saves face and keeps the blue bloc together. Or if we're heading for a repeat of 2015, where ultimate demands ended up costing everyone dearly. For now, Morten Messerschmidt has at least secured one thing: We're talking about the Danish People's Party. And that was probably the whole point, really.