Alexander Stubb leads the way: Why Ukraine is winning the war – and what it means for Ireland

It's not every day you hear a sitting head of state so explicitly correct the world's only superpower. But Alexander Stubb is no ordinary president. When he stated over the weekend that the US is wrong about Ukraine, it was more than just a diplomatic gesture. It was a statement from a leader who refuses to accept the pessimistic narrative coming from certain quarters in Washington. He said it straight out: Ukraine is winning this war.

And you know what? I believe he's right. But this isn't just about optimistic military rhetoric. For those of us who have followed Stubb's career – from MEP, through the Stubb Government as Prime Minister, to his current role – it's clear this is a man who has always played the long game. He's not just looking at the map of the Donbas battlefield; he's looking at the map of global power, trade, and diplomacy. His latest statement is a clear signal to both Europe and the United States: it's time to get our act together.

From triathlon to leadership

To understand why Stubb is so sure of himself, you need to understand the man. It's no coincidence that his biography, or if you will, the essence of the book Alexander Stubb - Matka presidentiksi - Valta, politiikka ja urheilu, echoes in every public appearance. He's an athlete. Someone who has completed an Ironman. And in politiikka ja urheilu (politics and sport), you see the same DNA: endurance, tactical shrewdness, and a refusal to give up when the headwind is strongest.

Just like in a triathlon, the Ukraine war isn't about who's leading after the first kilometre. It's about having the stamina to go the full distance. Stubb sees that Ukraine, with the right support, has that endurance. Russia, with its crippled economy and isolation, does not. It's a calculation based on reality, not wishful thinking. He sees Ukraine winning this war, not through a dramatic military parade in Moscow, but by slowly and steadily grinding down the Russian war machine.

Why Stubb is bucking the trend

At a time when many Western leaders talk about frozen conflicts and negotiated settlements, Alexander Stubb steps forward and pushes back. His message to the White House is crystal clear: You need to understand that Ukraine is winning this war. This isn't a proxy conflict where we should settle for a compromise. It's a fight for the future of the European security order. For us in Ireland and across Europe, this is an existential question. A Russian victory would mean a new Iron Curtain descending across the continent.

His argument rests on several pillars, revealing the seasoned analyst at work:

• The moral dimension: To back down on Ukraine now would be to abandon a sovereign state. Full stop.
• The strategic dimension: A Russia stopped in Ukraine is a Russia that cannot threaten NATO's eastern flank.
• The economic dimension: The long-term costs of a Russian victory – in terms of rearmament, instability, and refugee flows – far outweigh the cost of supporting Ukraine to victory today.

A new tone in Europe

Stubb's statement marks a new, confident tone from Finland. It's no longer the cautious neighbour weighing every syllable against Moscow. It's a NATO ally speaking to the US as an equal. He's saying things many European leaders think, but few dare to articulate so directly. For us observers, it's refreshing. It's a reminder that we have close allies who not only share our values, but are also willing to fight for them with intellectual clarity and political courage.

Ultimately, Alexander Stubb is not just about a Finnish president. He is becoming one of Europe's most influential voices in security policy. His analysis that Ukraine is on the path to victory, and his persistent demand that the US understand this, will shape the debate going forward. For businesses and investors trying to navigate this geopolitical landscape, the signal is clear: Don't bank on a quick Russian win. Expect a long, drawn-out conflict where endurance and a strong transatlantic bond will be decisive. And in that marathon, we've just been given a new, tough captain for the European team.