Alexander Stubb shows the way: Why Ukraine is winning the war – and what it means for Singapore

It's not every day you hear a sitting head of state so explicitly correct the world's sole superpower. But Alexander Stubb is no ordinary president. When he came out over the weekend and said that the US is wrong about Ukraine, it wasn't just a diplomatic marker. It was a statement from a leader who refuses to accept the pessimistic picture being pushed by some in Washington. He said it straight out: Ukraine is winning this war.

And you know what? I think he's right. But this isn't just about optimistic military rhetoric. For those of us who have followed Stubb's career – from MEP, through the Stubb Government as Prime Minister, to his current role – it's clear this is a man who has always played the long game. He's not just looking at the battlefield map in Donbas; he's looking at the map of global power, trade, and diplomacy. His latest statement is a clear signal to both Europe and the US: it's time to step up.

From triathlon to statesmanship

To understand why Stubb is so confident, you need to understand the man. It's no coincidence that his biography, or if you will, the unwritten book Alexander Stubb - Matka presidentiksi - Valta, politiikka ja urheilu, echoes in every public appearance. He's an athlete. Someone who has completed an Ironman. And in politiikka ja urheilu (politics and sport), you see the same DNA: endurance, tactical smarts, and a refusal to give up when the headwinds are strongest.

Just like in a triathlon, the Ukraine war isn't about who's leading after the first kilometre. It's about having the stamina to go the full distance. Stubb sees that Ukraine, with the right support, has that endurance. Russia, with its crippled economy and isolation, does not. It's a calculation based on reality, not wishful thinking. He sees Ukraine winning this war, not through a dramatic military parade in Moscow, but by slowly but surely grinding down the Russian war machine.

Why Stubb is going against the grain

At a time when many Western leaders talk about frozen conflicts and negotiated settlements, Alexander Stubb steps forward and pushes back. His message to the White House is crystal clear: You need to understand that Ukraine is winning this war. This isn't a proxy conflict where we should settle for a compromise. It's a fight for the future of the European security order. For us in Sweden and the Nordics, this is an existential issue. A Russian victory would mean a new Iron Curtain across the Baltic Sea.

His argument rests on several pillars, and here we see the seasoned analyst at work:

• The moral dimension: To back down on Ukraine now would be to abandon a sovereign state. Full stop.
• The strategic dimension: A Russia stopped in Ukraine is a Russia that doesn't threaten NATO's eastern flank, including Finland and Sweden.
• The economic dimension: The long-term costs of a Russian victory – in terms of rearmament, instability, and refugee flows – far outweigh the cost of supporting Ukraine to victory today.

A new tone in the Nordics

Stubb's statement marks a new, confident tone from Finland. It's no longer the cautious neighbour weighing every syllable against Moscow. It's a NATO ally talking to the US as an equal. He's saying things that many European leaders think, but few dare to articulate so directly. For us Swedish observers, it's refreshing. It's a reminder that we have a close ally who not only shares our values, but is also willing to fight for them with intellectual sharpness and political courage.

In the end, Alexander Stubb isn't just about a Finnish president. He is becoming one of Europe's most influential voices in security policy. His analysis that Ukraine is on its way to winning, and his persistent demand that the US understand this, will shape the debate going forward. For the businesses and investors trying to navigate this geopolitical landscape, the signal is clear: Don't count on a quick Russian win. Count on a long, drawn-out war where endurance and a strong transatlantic bond will be decisive. And in that marathon, we've just gotten a tough new captain for the Nordic team.