Alexander Stubb shows the way: Why Ukraine is winning the war – and what it means for New Zealand

It's not every day you hear a sitting head of state so explicitly correct the world's only superpower. But Alexander Stubb is no ordinary president. When he stated over the weekend that the US is wrong about Ukraine, it wasn't just a diplomatic gesture. It was a statement from a leader who refuses to accept the pessimistic narrative coming from some corners of Washington. He said it straight: Ukraine is winning this war.

And you know what? I reckon he's right. But this isn't just about military optimism. For those of us who've followed Stubb's career – from EU parliamentarian, through the Stubb Government as Prime Minister, to his current role – it's clear this is a man who's always played the long game. He's not just looking at the battle map of Donbas; he's looking at the global map of power, trade, and diplomacy. His latest comments are a clear signal to both Europe and the US: it's time to get our act together.

From triathlon to leadership

To understand why Stubb is so confident, you need to understand the man. It's no coincidence that his biography – the essence of which you could call Alexander Stubb - Matka presidentiksi - Valta, politiikka ja urheilu – echoes in every public appearance. He's an athlete. An Ironman finisher. And in politiikka ja urheilu (politics and sport), you see the same DNA: endurance, tactical smarts, and a refusal to give up when the headwind is strongest.

Just like a triathlon, the Ukraine war isn't about who's leading after the first kilometre. It's about lasting the distance. Stubb sees that Ukraine, with the right support, has the stamina. Russia, with its battered economy and isolation, does not. It's a calculation based on reality, not wishful thinking. He sees Ukraine winning this war, not through a dramatic military parade in Moscow, but by slowly and steadily grinding down the Russian war machine.

Why Stubb is bucking the trend

At a time when many Western leaders talk about frozen conflicts and negotiated settlements, Alexander Stubb steps forward and disagrees. His message to the White House is crystal clear: You need to understand that Ukraine is winning. This isn't a proxy conflict where we should settle for a compromise. It's a fight for the future of the international rules-based order. For us in New Zealand, a country that relies on that order, this matters. A Russian victory would embolden those who seek to redraw borders by force, impacting global stability from Europe to the Indo-Pacific.

His argument rests on several key points, and here we see the seasoned analyst at work:

• The moral dimension: Backing away from Ukraine now would mean abandoning a sovereign state. Full stop.
• The strategic dimension: A Russia stopped in Ukraine is a Russia that doesn't threaten NATO's eastern flank – or global stability more broadly.
• The economic dimension: The long-term costs of a Russian victory – in terms of rearmament, instability, and economic disruption – far outweigh the cost of supporting Ukraine to victory today.

A new voice on the global stage

Stubb's statement marks a new, confident tone from Finland. It's no longer the cautious neighbour weighing every syllable towards Moscow. It's a NATO ally speaking to the US as an equal. He's saying things many European leaders think, but few dare to articulate so directly. From a Kiwi perspective, it's refreshing. It reminds us that strong, principled voices are crucial in upholding the international norms that smaller nations like ours depend on.

Ultimately, Alexander Stubb is more than just a Finnish president. He's becoming one of Europe's most influential voices in global security. His analysis that Ukraine is on a path to victory, and his insistence that the US understand this, will shape the debate going forward. For businesses and investors trying to navigate this geopolitical landscape, the signal is clear: Don't bank on a quick Russian win. Bank on a long, drawn-out struggle where endurance and a strong transatlantic bond will be key. And in that marathon, we're hearing a tough new captain for the team that champions the rules-based order.