Morten Messerschmidt draws a line in the sand: Will topple a centre-right government without a crackdown on Muslim immigration

There's something refreshingly old-school about it. Right in the middle of an election campaign where everyone else is hedging their bets and leaving doors ajar, Morten Messerschmidt has bloody well slammed his shut. With a bang that can be heard all the way in Troels Lund Poulsen's office.

While the prime ministerial candidates from Venstre and the Liberal Alliance are locked in a fierce battle to appear the most statemanlike, the DF leader has done something few dare to these days: He's issued an ultimatum. Not one of those wishy-washy "we'll go into negotiations with a clear priority" types. A proper one. One where he promises to bring the whole lot crashing down if he doesn't get his way.

A demand that divides opinion

The demand is as blunt as the man himself: More Muslim immigrants must leave Denmark than enter it. In other words, a genuine net outflow. And this isn't just a wish; it's a non-negotiable condition for even considering backing a centre-right prime minister.

This even made the usually unflappable Alex Vanopslagh from the Liberal Alliance raise an eyebrow. Because while LA is keen to tighten immigration policy, there are limits. "I have no desire for people to have to leave Denmark just because they're Muslim," came the dry response from Vanopslagh, who also reminded everyone that we actually have freedom of religion here – and that many Muslim hands work in the care for the elderly, hands we can't exactly do without.

But Messerschmidt is ice-cold in his replies. For him, it's about something more fundamental. "People with a deep-seated Islamic mindset who believe homosexuals should be stoned do not belong here, no matter how much they work," he said over the weekend, stressing that employment is not a free pass.

Troels Lund's headache

For Venstre's Troels Lund Poulsen, the timing couldn't be much worse. Here he is, trying to unite the blue bloc around a project that appears cohesive and fit for government – and then DF comes along and pulls the rug from under him with a demand that sows division. When the press tried to get a comment from the Venstre leader, he flat-out refused to appear. Instead, he sent Morten Dahlin out. And he, naturally, wasn't about to ask for ultimatums.

The problem for Troels Lund is twofold. Firstly, a demand like this scares off the more moderate voters. Secondly, he risks ending up with a voter base after the election that makes him completely dependent on DF – and therefore on Messerschmidt's whims. This is precisely the nightmare that the old VLAK coalition days should have taught Venstre to fear.

Why is he doing it?

If you ask the old hands and advisers at Christiansborg, there's a method to the madness. Morten Messerschmidt is playing a high-stakes game to maximise votes. Not so long ago, the Danish People's Party was in a genuine fight for survival. That battle is won, but to become a major player again, the party needs to make its mark.

• He wants to stand out: In an election dominated by the economy and welfare, immigration policy needs to be carved out in stark, hard terms to cut through.
• He's learned from history: DF itself was the largest bourgeois party from 2015-2019 without entering government. He doesn't want to repeat that mistake.
• He's after influence: Either he gets his way and can set the agenda from within. Or he stands as the principled champion who refused to compromise. It's a win-win for him.

And then there's the Greenland factor. Just a year ago, Messerschmidt was trying to get a foot in the door with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss the Arctic. Back then, we were supposed to have a "grown-up conversation" with the Americans. Today, with threats becoming more direct, his tone is entirely different. He's learned that you don't negotiate with a man who threatens military force. It points to a politician who can indeed change course when reality shifts.

The Lidegaard libel case simmers in the background

While the election campaign rages on, a courtroom showdown awaits this summer. Morten Messerschmidt has sued the Radical Party's Martin Lidegaard for libel. Lidegaard said at a debate that Messerschmidt's repatriation policy targets people based on skin colour. The DF leader considers this a defamation of character.

The case goes to court on August 18th, and it shows that there's personal animosity at play here. Messerschmidt has previously said he "rules out nothing in politics except making Lars Løkke Rasmussen a minister". Lidegaard has presumably ended up on the same list. When things get personal, they rarely get prettier.

What now?

Right now, it looks like a Gordian knot. Morten Messerschmidt has dug his heels in, and he's ready to fire live rounds. "If the government doesn't deliver on the demand, we'll bring it down. No messing about," he said over the weekend.

The question is whether Troels Lund Poulsen and Alex Vanopslagh can find a way out that saves face while keeping the blue bloc together. Or whether we're heading for a repeat of 2015, where ultimate demands ended up costing everyone dear. For now, Morten Messerschmidt has at least secured one thing: We're talking about the Danish People's Party. And that was probably the point all along.