Lebanon: Between Historic Basketball Triumph and the Fear of the Next War

I'm sitting here at my usual spot in Berlin, the night is long, the coffee is cold. But I just can't sleep because the images and news from Lebanon won't let go of me. We're not just talking about another flashpoint in the Middle East. We're talking about a country currently on an emotional rollercoaster the likes of which I've rarely seen. On one side, the sporting frenzy; on the other, the dark rumble of a war that could spill across the border at any second.

An Evening in Zouk Mikaël: When Basketball Saved the State

Let's recall last Friday. While diplomats in Geneva and Washington were frantically calling each other, the suburb of Zouk Mikaël wasn't shaking from bombs, but from cheers. The Lebanese men's national basketball team achieved something that feels like a small miracle in this country: they made us all forget the nightmare for 90 minutes. They literally demolished Saudi Arabia with a score of 94-64. This wasn't just any qualifier for the 2027 World Cup in Qatar; it was a statement. Wael Arakji, the maestro, orchestrated the game as if it were the last symphony before the apocalypse. And then there was Jihad Elkhatib – the son of legend Fadi Elkhatib – delivering in his very first quarter for the national team as if it were the most normal thing in the world. If that's not a defining moment, I don't know what is.

The Other Side of the Coin: The Shadow Over Beirut

But anyone who thinks sport can liberate Lebanon from its precarious situation is sorely mistaken. Just a few kilometers from the arena, in the southern suburbs, preparations are in full swing. The killing of members of the Iranian leadership circle by coordinated US and Israeli attacks has ignited the powder keg. Hezbollah, still severely scarred from the last war in 2024, is under immense pressure. Their new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has already sworn retaliation. He speaks of the "duty to confront the aggression." You can figure out what that means: rockets from South Lebanon, retaliatory strikes on Beirut, on Tripoli, on the Bekaa Valley.

The warnings are unmistakable. Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji outlined the situation clearly in Geneva: Should Hezbollah be drawn into a war between Iran and the West, then Israel will not hesitate this time. Then it won't just be MTV Lebanon or a Hezbollah office that gets hit. Then it gets serious: civilian infrastructure, Beirut's airport, the power grids. Imagine that: A city that is just beginning to clear the rubble from the last disaster is supposed to be leveled to the ground? That is the reality in which the Lebanese live. They watch basketball and simultaneously wonder if they'll still have a home tomorrow.

Football Keeps Dreaming: The U23 Makes History

And then there's the third story, showing us just how much this state is built on contradictions. While Hezbollah flexes its muscles and the West threatens sanctions, the Lebanon national football team – more precisely, the U23 team – is making its own headlines. In Bangkok, this squad under Anthony Maasry made history. With a commanding 3-0 win over Mongolia, they qualified for the final stage of the U23 Asian Cup for the first time ever. A young Danny Istambouli, scoring two, and then captain Ali Elfadel, sealing the deal. That's the stuff heroes are made of. A small ray of light in a sea of hopelessness. These boys are heading to Saudi Arabia for the 2026 finals, while their fathers might already be back in the trenches. That's the crazy, beautiful, and tragic poetry of the Middle East.

The Invisible Hand of Tehran

We mustn't be naive. All these developments – the sports, the politics, the daily skirmishes – are just the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface, things are simmering intensely. According to internal circles that have provided me with reliable information for years, Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers are already back in Lebanon, preparing Hezbollah for a possible strike. They are in command rooms in the Bekaa, checking rocket units, issuing directives. The new Iranian ambassador to Beirut, Mohammad-Reza Raouf Sheibani, is a veteran who knows the game and knows how to pull the strings. Lebanon is and remains Tehran's pawn in the game against the West. Ignoring that would be negligent.

What's Left for Us? A Country in Free Fall – or on the Rise?

Let me give you an honest assessment, the kind I've been giving for twenty years. Lebanon stands at a crossroads. The sporting successes are balm for the soul of a traumatized nation. They show that this country is capable of more than just chaos and corruption. They are an incredibly strong signal for investment in youth, in infrastructure, in a future.

But at the same time, the sword of Damocles of escalation hangs over everything. Any wrong move, any rocket fired by accident, any political assassination could trigger the next major conflict. For us as observers, and especially for companies operating in the region or wanting to, this means one thing: highest alert. The situation is more unpredictable than ever. Anyone investing in Lebanon today – whether in media rights for the Lebanon national football team, in sponsorships for the basketball players, or in reconstruction – must calculate with ice-cold precision. And they must understand that the risk lies not in the numbers, but in Hezbollah's bunkers and the US aircraft carriers.

I'm staying on it. And I advise you: Keep an eye on Lebanon. Not just for the headlines, but for the people. Because they never give up.

• The Sports Euphoria: Men's basketball team celebrates a resounding 94-64 victory against Saudi Arabia and dreams of the 2027 World Cup.
• The Historic Football Debut: U23 national team qualifies for the Asian Cup for the first time – a beacon of hope.
• The Geopolitical Bomb: Hezbollah threatens retaliation after US-Israeli strikes on Iran; Israel warns of attacks on civilian infrastructure like Beirut's airport.
• The Economic Equation: The balancing act between sporting potential and political collapse becomes a severe test for investors and the population.