Lebanon: Between historic basketball triumph and fear of the next war

I'm sitting here at my usual spot in Berlin, the night is long, the coffee's cold. But I just can't sleep because I can't shake the images and news from Lebanon. We're not just talking about another hotspot in the Middle East here. We're talking about a country going through an emotional rollercoaster like I've rarely seen. On one side, the sports frenzy; on the other, the dark rumble of a war that could spill over the border any second.

An evening in Zouk Mikaël: When basketball saved the nation

Let's think back to last Friday. While diplomats in Geneva and Washington were frantically on the phone, the suburb of Zouk Mikaël wasn't shaking from bombs, but from cheers. The Lebanese national basketball team achieved something that feels like a small miracle in this country: they made us all forget the nightmare for 90 minutes. They absolutely demolished Saudi Arabia, 94-64. This wasn't just any qualifier for the 2023 World Cup in Qatar – it was a statement. Wael Arakji, the maestro, orchestrated the game like it was the last symphony before the apocalypse. And then there's Jihad Elkhatib – son of the legend Fadi Elkhatib – delivering in his very first quarter for the national team like it's the most normal thing in the world. If that's not a sign, I don't know what is.

The other side of the coin: The shadow over Beirut

But anyone who thinks sports can pull Lebanon out of its precarious situation is seriously mistaken. Just a few kilometres from the stadium, in the southern suburbs, preparations are in full swing. The killing of key Iranian figures through coordinated US and Israeli attacks has lit the fuse. Hezbollah, still heavily scarred from the last war in 2006, is under immense pressure. Their new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has already vowed revenge. He talks about the "duty to confront the aggression." You can figure out what that means: rockets from South Lebanon, retaliatory strikes on Beirut, on Tripoli, on the Bekaa Valley.

The warnings are unmistakable. Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji outlined the situation crystal clear in Geneva: If Hezbollah gets dragged into a war between Iran and the West, then Israel won't hesitate this time. It won't just be MTV Lebanon or a Hezbollah office that gets hit. Then it gets down to the nitty-gritty: civilian infrastructure, Beirut's airport, the power grids. Imagine that: a city that's just starting to clear the rubble from the last disaster, about to be levelled? That's the reality Lebanese live in. They watch basketball while wondering if they'll still have a home tomorrow.

Football keeps dreaming: The U23 makes history

And then there's the third story, showing just how full of contradictions this country is. While Hezbollah flexes its muscles and the West threatens sanctions, the Lebanese national football team – specifically the U23 – is making its own headlines. In Bangkok, this squad under Anthony Maasry made history. With a commanding 3-0 win over Mongolia, they qualified for the U-23 Asian Cup finals for the first time ever. Young Danny Istambouli scoring two, and then captain Ali Elfadel sealing the deal. That's the stuff heroes are made of. A small glimmer of light in a sea of hopelessness. These guys are heading to Saudi Arabia for the 2026 finals, while their fathers might be back in the trenches. That's the twisted, beautiful, and tragic poetry of the Middle East.

The invisible hand of Tehran

Let's not be naive. All these developments – the sports, the politics, the daily skirmishes – are just the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface, things are simmering big time. According to internal sources who've given me reliable info for years, Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers are back in Lebanon, preparing Hezbollah for a potential strike. They're in command rooms in the Bekaa, checking rocket units, calling the shots. The new Iranian ambassador in Beirut, Mohammad-Reza Raouf Sheibani, is an old hand who knows the game and how to pull the strings. Lebanon is, and remains, Tehran's pawn in the game against the West. Ignoring that would be reckless.

What's left for us? A country in freefall – or on the verge of a breakthrough?

Let me give you an honest assessment, the kind I've been giving for twenty years. Lebanon is at a crossroads. The sporting successes are balm for the soul of a traumatised nation. They show this country is capable of more than just chaos and corruption. They are an incredibly strong signal for investment in the youth, in infrastructure, in a future.

But at the same time, the sword of Damocles hangs over everything. One wrong move, one rocket fired by accident, one political assassination could trigger the next major conflict. For us observers, and especially for companies active or looking to be active in the region, this means one thing: maximum alert. The situation is more unpredictable than ever. Anyone investing in Lebanon today – be it in media rights for the Lebanese national football team, sponsoring the basketball players, or reconstruction – has to calculate with ice-cold precision. And they have to understand that the risk isn't in the numbers, but in Hezbollah's bunkers and the US aircraft carriers.

I'm staying on it. And I advise you: keep an eye on Lebanon. Not just for the headlines, but for the people. Because they never give up.

• The sports euphoria: National basketball team celebrates a resounding 94-64 victory against Saudi Arabia and dreams of the 2023 World Cup.
• The historic football premiere: U-23 national team qualifies for the Asian Cup for the first time – a beacon of hope.
• The geopolitical bomb: Hezbollah threatens retaliation after US-Israel strike on Iran; Israel warns of attacks on civilian infrastructure like Beirut's airport.
• The economic equation: The balancing act between sporting potential and political collapse becomes a severe test for investors and the population.