Lebanon: Between Historic Basketball Triumph and the Fear of the Next War

I'm sitting here at my usual spot in Berlin, the night is long, the coffee is cold. But I just can't sleep because the images and news from Lebanon won't let go of me. We're not just talking about another crisis hotspot in the Middle East here. We're talking about a country that's currently on an emotional rollercoaster like I've rarely seen. On one side, the sports-fueled euphoria; on the other, the dark rumble of thunder from a war that could roll across the border at any second.

An Evening in Zouk Mikaël: When Basketball Saved the State

Let's think back to last Friday. While diplomats in Geneva and Washington were frantically calling each other, the suburb of Zouk Mikaël wasn't trembling from bombs, but from cheers. The Lebanese national basketball team achieved something that feels almost like a small miracle in this country: it made us all forget the nightmare for 90 minutes. They absolutely demolished Saudi Arabia with a score of 94-64. This wasn't just any qualifier for the 2027 World Cup in Qatar – it was a statement. Wael Arakji, the maestro, conducted the game as if it were the last symphony before the apocalypse. And then there's this guy, Jihad Elkhatib – the son of the legend Fadi Elkhatib – who delivers in his very first quarter for the national team as if it were the most normal thing in the world. If that's not a sign, then I don't know what is.

The Other Side of the Coin: The Shadow Over Beirut

But anyone who thinks sports can free Lebanon from its precarious situation is sorely mistaken. Just a few kilometers from the arena, in the southern suburbs, preparations are in full swing. The assassination of key figures in the Iranian leadership by coordinated US and Israeli attacks has ignited the powder keg. Hezbollah, still badly scarred from the last war in 2024, is under enormous pressure. Their new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has already sworn retaliation. He speaks of the "duty to confront the aggression." You can figure out what that means: rockets from South Lebanon, retaliatory strikes on Beirut, on Tripoli, on the Bekaa Valley.

The warnings are unmistakable. Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji laid out the situation crystal clear in Geneva: If Hezbollah gets dragged into a war between Iran and the West, then Israel won't hesitate this time. It won't just hit MTV Lebanon or a Hezbollah office. Then it gets serious: civilian infrastructure, Beirut's airport, the power grids. Imagine that: a city that's just starting to clear the rubble from the last disaster, being leveled to the ground? That's the reality the Lebanese live in. They watch basketball and simultaneously wonder if they'll still have a home tomorrow.

Football Keeps Dreaming: The U-23 Team Makes History

And then there's the third story that shows us just how much this country is built on contradictions. While Hezbollah is flexing its muscles and the West threatens sanctions, the Lebanese national football team – or more precisely, the U-23 team – is making its own headlines. In Bangkok, this squad under Anthony Maasry made history. With a confident 3-0 win against Mongolia, they qualified for the final stage of the U-23 Asian Cup for the first time ever. A young Danny Istambouli, scoring two goals, and then captain Ali Elfadel putting the lid on it. This is the stuff heroes are made of. A small glimmer of hope in a sea of hopelessness. These kids are going to the final tournament in Saudi Arabia in 2026, while their fathers might already be back in the trenches. That's the crazy, beautiful, and tragic poetry of the Middle East.

The Invisible Hand of Tehran

We mustn't be naive. All these developments – the sports, the politics, the daily skirmishes – are just the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface, things are boiling over. According to internal sources who have provided me with reliable information for years, Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers are back in Lebanon, preparing Hezbollah for a possible strike. They're sitting in command rooms in the Bekaa, checking rocket units, issuing the slogans. The new Iranian ambassador to Beirut, Mohammad-Reza Raouf Sheibani, is a seasoned veteran who knows the game and how to pull the strings. Lebanon is and remains Tehran's chess piece in the game against the West. Ignoring that would be negligent.

What's Left for Us? A Country in Free Fall – or on the Verge of a Breakthrough?

I want to give you an honest assessment, the kind I've been giving for twenty years. Lebanon stands at a crossroads. The sporting successes are balm for the soul of a traumatized nation. They show that this country is capable of more than just chaos and corruption. They are an incredibly strong signal for investment in the youth, in infrastructure, in a future.

But at the same time, the sword of Damocles of escalation hangs over everything. Every wrong move, every rocket fired by accident, every political murder can trigger the next major conflict. For us as observers, and especially for companies active in the region or looking to be, this means one thing: highest alert level. The situation is more unpredictable than ever. Anyone investing in Lebanon today – whether in media rights for the Lebanese national football team, sponsoring the basketball players, or reconstruction – has to calculate with ice in their veins. And they have to understand that the risk isn't in the numbers, but in Hezbollah's bunkers and the US aircraft carriers.

I'm staying on it. And I advise you: Keep an eye on Lebanon. Not just for the headlines, but for the people. Because they never give up.

• The Sports Euphoria: The national basketball team celebrates a resounding 94-64 victory against Saudi Arabia and dreams of the 2027 World Cup.
• The Historic Football Debut: The U-23 national team qualifies for the Asian Cup for the first time – a beacon of hope.
• The Geopolitical Bomb: Hezbollah threatens retaliation after the US-Israeli attack on Iran; Israel warns of strikes on civilian infrastructure like Beirut's airport.
• The Economic Equation: The balancing act between athletic potential and political collapse becomes a severe test for investors and the population.