Lebanon: Between historic basketball triumph and the fear of the next war

I'm sitting here at my local haunt in Berlin, the night is long, the coffee's cold. But I just can't sleep because the images and news from Lebanon won't let go of me. We're not just talking about another crisis hotspot in the Middle East here. We're talking about a country that's currently on an emotional rollercoaster the likes of which I've rarely seen. On one side, the sporting euphoria; on the other, the dark rumble of thunder from a war that could roll across the border any second.

An evening in Zouk Mikaël: When basketball saved the state

Let's think back to last Friday. While diplomats in Geneva and Washington were frantically on the phone, the suburb of Zouk Mikaël wasn't trembling from bombs, but from cheers. The Lebanese national basketball team achieved something that seems like a minor miracle in this country: they made us all forget the nightmare for 90 minutes. They absolutely demolished Saudi Arabia, 94 to 64. This wasn't just any qualifier for the 2023 World Cup in Qatar – it was a statement. Wael Arakji, the maestro, conducted the game as if it were the last symphony before the apocalypse. And then there was this kid Jihad Elkhatib – the son of legend Fadi Elkhatib – who delivers in his very first quarter for the national team as if it were the most natural thing in the world. If that's not a sign, then I don't know what is.

The other side of the coin: The shadow over Beirut

But anyone who thinks sport can free Lebanon from its precarious situation is gravely mistaken. Just a few kilometres from the stadium, in the southern suburbs, preparations are in full swing. The assassination of the Iranian leadership circle through coordinated US and Israeli attacks has lit the fuse on the powder keg. Hezbollah, still bearing deep scars from the last war in 2006, is under enormous pressure. Their new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has already sworn revenge. He speaks of the "duty to confront the aggression." You can figure out what that means: rockets from South Lebanon, retaliatory strikes on Beirut, on Tripoli, on the Bekaa Valley.

The warnings are unmistakable. Lebanon's Foreign Minister, Youssef Rajji, outlined the situation in Geneva crystal clear: If Hezbollah gets dragged into a war between Iran and the West, then Israel won't hesitate this time. Then it won't just be MTV Lebanon or a Hezbollah office that gets hit. Then it's about the essentials: civilian infrastructure, Beirut's airport, the power grids. Imagine that: a city that's only just starting to clear the rubble from the last disaster, set to be levelled? That's the reality the Lebanese live in. They watch basketball and simultaneously wonder if they'll still have a home tomorrow.

Football keeps dreaming: The U23s make history

And then there's the third story, showing us just how much this state is made of contradictions. While Hezbollah flexes its muscles and the West threatens sanctions, the Lebanese national football team – more precisely, the U23s – are writing their own headlines. In Bangkok, this squad under Anthony Maasry made history. With a commanding 3-0 win over Mongolia, they qualified for the final stage of the U23 Asian Cup for the first time ever. A young Danny Istambouli, scoring two, and then captain Ali Elfadel, putting the lid on it. That's the stuff heroes are made of. A small glimmer of light in a sea of hopelessness. These kids are heading to Saudi Arabia for the 2026 finals, while their fathers might already be back in the trenches. That's the sick, beautiful, and tragic poetry of the Middle East.

The invisible hand of Tehran

We mustn't be naive. All these developments – the sport, the politics, the daily skirmishes – are just the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface, things are bubbling furiously. According to internal circles that have provided me with reliable information for years, Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers are already back in Lebanon, preparing Hezbollah for a potential strike. They're sitting in command rooms in the Bekaa, checking rocket units, issuing orders. Iran's new ambassador to Beirut, Mohammad-Reza Raouf Sheibani, is an old hand who knows the game and knows how to pull the strings. Lebanon is, and remains, Tehran's pawn in the game against the West. To ignore that would be negligent.

What are we left with? A country in free fall – or on the cusp of change?

Let me give you an honest assessment, the kind I've been giving for twenty years. Lebanon is at a crossroads. The sporting successes are balm for the soul of a traumatised nation. They show that this country is capable of more than just chaos and corruption. They are an incredibly strong signal for investment in youth, in infrastructure, in a future.

But at the same time, the sword of Damocles of escalation hangs over everything. One wrong move, one rocket fired by accident, one political murder could trigger the next major conflict. For us observers, and especially for companies active or looking to be active in the region, this means one thing: highest alert. The situation is more unpredictable than ever. Anyone investing in Lebanon today – whether in media rights for the Lebanese national football team, in sponsorship for the basketballers, or in reconstruction – has to do some cold, hard calculations. And they have to understand that the risk isn't in the numbers, but in Hezbollah's bunkers and the US aircraft carriers.

I'm staying on it. And my advice to you: Keep an eye on Lebanon. Not just for the headlines, but for the people. Because they never give up.

• The sports euphoria: National basketball team celebrates a resounding 94-64 victory against Saudi Arabia and dreams of the 2023 World Cup.
• The historic football premiere: U23 national team qualifies for the Asian Cup for the first time – a beacon of hope.
• The geopolitical bomb: Hezbollah threatens retaliation after US-Israel attack on Iran; Israel warns of strikes on civilian infrastructure like Beirut airport.
• The economic equation: The balancing act between sporting potential and political collapse becomes a severe test for investors and the population.