Rouzbeh Parsi on the War: 'USA Is Naive, Israel Wants to See Iran Collapse'
The past couple of days have redefined the Middle East. As the smoke now clears over Tehran and the missiles temporarily fall silent, we are facing a new reality. A reality where the US and Israel have jointly carried out what they call a "preemptive attack" against Iran, and where Ayatollah Khomeini's successor, Ali Khamenei, has been confirmed dead. To understand the magnitude of this, and above all to be able to predict what comes next, there is no one I would rather turn to than Rouzbeh Parsi.
A Voice in the Storm
In an era when disinformation and propaganda flow from all sides, the need for sharp, independent analysts is greater than ever. Rouzbeh Parsi, affiliated with Lund University and with a past as Program Director at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, has spent decades building a reputation as one of the most insightful voices on Persian politics. His analysis isn't the quick, self-assured shouts of Twitter, but that of a long-term regional expert. It's no coincidence that his name circulates frequently in newsrooms whenever tensions escalate. It's precisely now, as bombs fall, that we need his calming yet unsettlingly clear-eyed perspective.
What strikes me when listening to Rouzbeh Parsi's commentary over the past few days is his ability to dissect the fractures within the Western alliance. Because even if Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu stand rhetorically side-by-side, their ultimate goals are anything but identical. This is where the real analysis begins, far beyond the political soundbite of "regime change."
Two Paths to the Same Goal – Or Not?
In his speech from Mar-a-Lago, Trump was clear about "obliterating Iran's fleet" and "leveling their missile industry." But when you listen to what Rouzbeh Parsi actually says, a more nuanced picture of Washington's strategy emerges.
- America's Naive Dream: "The Americans could probably envision a different regime," Parsi notes, "and are perhaps naive enough to believe they can achieve that just by bombing from the air." It's a classic American fantasy: that with surgical precision strikes, you can decapitate a hydra and then watch a democratic, Western-friendly phoenix rise from the ashes. It didn't work in Iraq, and it won't work in Iran.
- Israel's Cynical Realism: Israel, on the other hand, Rouzbeh Parsi argues, isn't after a shift. They're after regime destruction. "They want this regime to disappear, [...] strategic chaos is more useful for Israel than a new, cohesive political elite taking power," he explains. For Tel Aviv, a bombed-out, fragmented neighbor descending into civil strife is a far lesser threat than a new, perhaps nationalist, central power that still harbors ambitions to challenge Israel.
This strategic rift is a ticking time bomb in itself. The question is how long the alliance holds once the dust settles and the two nations start fishing in the same troubled waters.
A Questioned Expertise Amidst a Hot War
It would be naive not to mention the controversy that has surrounded Rouzbeh Parsi over the past year. His resignation from the Swedish Institute of International Affairs in 2025, following an investigation into his connections with the pro-Iranian network IEI, has naturally left its mark. The investigation found no evidence that he was part of a state-directed influence campaign, but it concluded that his lack of transparency was incompatible with his role at the institute. These are serious matters, important to keep in mind. You could call it a blemish on his CV, or a reminder that Iran experts often operate in a gray zone between academia and diplomacy where loyalties can be questioned.
Despite this, or perhaps because of it, his voice is now more relevant than ever. The fact that he is still brought in as a senior advisor and appears frequently on major news broadcasts shows that his knowledge carries significant weight. In the midst of war, with Iran's fate hanging in the balance, it is his deep understanding of Persian society's underlying currents that we need, rather than pure ideological credentials. It's a balancing act every newsroom in this country is currently forced to perform.
What Happens Now? The Scenario We Aren't Talking About
With Khamenei gone and the IRGC leadership decimated, we are in completely uncharted territory. The protests that shook Iran as recently as January revealed widespread public dissatisfaction, but the question is what weighs heaviest in a time of crisis: hatred for the regime or hatred for the aggressor. Rouzbeh Parsi has previously pointed out that Iran has the capacity to "raise costs" for the US and Israel through its proxies and missiles, even if its air defense is virtually non-existent.
For those of us following the region, it's now about watching three things:
- The Power Vacuum: Who actually takes over in Qom and Tehran? Will the IRGC hold together, or will it splinter into factions?
- Hezbollah's Next Move: They are no longer Iran's primary line of defense, says Parsi, but in an all-out war, they might be forced to choose a side.
- Europe's Silence: Rouzbeh Parsi wryly notes that Europeans "will probably mostly pretend nothing is happening, because generally speaking, they too want the Islamic Republic to disappear." It's an uncomfortable truth for Stockholm and Brussels.
This is a new era. And to navigate it, we need more people who dare to think out loud, who dare to be complex, and who can see beyond the next 24-hour news cycle. Rouzbeh Parsi is one of the few who can fill that role. In the shadow of the bombs, as the political map is being redrawn, his analysis is more important than ever.