Rouzbeh Parsi on the War: USA Naive, Israel Wants to See Iran Collapse
It has been a couple of days that are redefining the Middle East. As the smoke now clears over Tehran and the missiles have temporarily fallen silent, we are faced with a new reality. A reality where the US and Israel have jointly carried out what they call a "pre-emptive attack" on Iran, and where Ayatollah Khomeini's successor, Ali Khamenei, has been confirmed dead. To understand the magnitude of this, and above all to be able to predict what comes next, there is no one I would rather turn to than Rouzbeh Parsi.
A Voice in the Storm
In a time when disinformation and propaganda are flowing from all sides, the need for sharp, independent analysts is greater than ever. Rouzbeh Parsi, affiliated with Lund University and with a past as Programme Director at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, has built a reputation over decades as one of the most insightful voices on Persian politics. His analysis is not about quick, cocksure tweets, but that of a long-term regional expert. It's no coincidence his name is frequently circulated in newsrooms whenever the situation intensifies. It is precisely now, when the bombs are falling, that we need his calming yet simultaneously unsettling clarity.
What strikes me when listening to Rouzbeh Parsi's comments over the past few days is his ability to dissect the fractures within the Western alliance. Because even though Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu stand side-by-side in rhetoric, their ultimate goals are anything but identical. This is where the real analysis begins, far beyond the political catchphrase of "regime change."
Two Paths to the Same Goal – Or Not?
In his speech from Mar-a-Lago, Trump was clear about "obliterating Iran's navy" and "levelling the missile industry." But when you listen to what Rouzbeh Parsi actually says, a more nuanced picture of Washington's strategy emerges.
- America's Naive Dream: "The Americans might be able to envision a different regime," notes Parsi, "and are perhaps naive enough to believe they can achieve that just by bombing from the air." It's a classic American fantasy: that with surgical precision strikes, you can cut off the head of a hydra and then see a democratic, Western-friendly phoenix rise from the ashes. It didn't work in Iraq, and it won't work in Iran.
- Israel's Cynical Realism: Israel, on the other hand, argues Rouzbeh Parsi, is not after a change. They are after regime destruction. "They want this regime to disappear, [...] strategic chaos is more useful for Israel than a new, cohesive political elite taking power," he explains. For Tel Aviv, a bombed-out, fragmented neighbour sinking into civil strife is a far smaller threat than a new, perhaps nationalist, central power that still harbours ambitions to challenge Israel.
This strategic rift is a ticking time bomb in itself. The question is how long the alliance will hold once the dust settles and the two nations start fishing in the same troubled waters.
A Questioned Expertise in the Midst of a Burning War
It would be naive not to mention the controversy that has surrounded Rouzbeh Parsi over the past year. His departure from the Swedish Institute of International Affairs in 2025, following an investigation into his connections with the pro-Iran network IEI, has naturally left its mark. The investigation found no evidence that he was part of a state-directed influence campaign, but it concluded that his lack of transparency was incompatible with his role at the institute. These are serious matters that are important to keep in mind. You could call it a stain on his CV, or a reminder that Iran experts often operate in a grey zone between academia and diplomacy where loyalties can be questioned.
Despite this, or perhaps because of it, his voice is now more relevant than ever. The fact that he is still hired as a senior advisor and frequently appears on major news broadcasts shows that his knowledge carries significant weight. In the midst of war, when Iran's fate hangs in the balance, it's his deep understanding of Persian society's sinews that we need, rather than pure ideological certifications. It's a balancing act that every newsroom in this country is currently forced to perform.
What Happens Now? The Scenario We Aren't Talking About
With Khamenei gone and the IRGC leadership decimated, we are in completely uncharted territory. The protests that shook Iran as recently as January showed widespread public dissatisfaction, but the question is what carries more weight in a time of crisis: hatred for the regime or hatred for the attacker. Rouzbeh Parsi has previously pointed out that Iran has the capacity to "increase the costs" for the US and Israel via its proxies and missiles, even if its air defence is practically non-existent.
For those of us following the region, it's now about watching three things:
- The Power Vacuum: Who actually takes over in Qom and Tehran? Will the IRGC hold together, or will it splinter into factions?
- Hezbollah's Next Move: They are no longer Iran's primary line of defence, says Parsi, but in an all-out war, they might be forced to choose a side.
- Europe's Silence: Rouzbeh Parsi wryly notes that the Europeans "will probably mostly pretend it's raining, because generally speaking, they also want the Islamic Republic to disappear." It's an uncomfortable truth for Stockholm and Brussels.
This is a new era. And to navigate it, we need more people who dare to think out loud, who dare to be complex, and who can see beyond the next 24-hour news cycle. Rouzbeh Parsi is one of the few who can fill that role. In the shadow of the bombs, where the political map is being redrawn, his analysis is more important than ever.