The Israel-Iran Proxy War: How to Read the Situation from Behind the Negotiating Table?

The clock strikes 4 AM. In Tel Aviv, as in Tehran, the defining moments aren't measured in hours but in the seconds that separate the decision for war from the decision for peace. Here, in this corner of the world, we're accustomed to reading the situation with an eye that never misses the small details behind the big headlines. What's unfolding today between Israel and Iran isn't just an exchange of blows; it's the culmination of a decades-long proxy war, and now the mask has slipped, leading to a direct confrontation unlike anything we've witnessed before.

Just days ago, everyone seemed to be bracing for the worst-case scenario. Messages from Tehran reached mediators with five clear conditions for a ceasefire – not just passing demands, but red lines. Anyone following closely understands that this moment feels like a chapter from “A Call at 4 Am: Thirteen Prime Ministers and the Crucial Decisions That Shaped Israeli Politics”, where political calculations intertwine with strategic overconfidence. Decision-makers there, as in Tehran, are well aware that this war isn't just a military battle; it's a chess game spanning from the Gulf to the Mediterranean.

In closed corridors, Elliott Kaufman's name is coming up frequently these days. Not because he holds any magical answers, but because his expertise in Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy reminds us of one truth: intelligence alone doesn't make policy, but its absence creates disasters. What's happening now on Israel's northern border and deep inside Iran is a real test of this principle. Tehran wants to lift the economic pressure on its economy and seeks guarantees against the expansion of American military influence in its immediate neighbourhood. Israel, on the other hand, finds itself facing a difficult equation: how to deter an adversary when it knows that a strike today will be met with a double blow tomorrow?

This conflict has dimensions that aren't read solely through the sound of explosions, but also through books that capture the loneliness of decision-making. The book “Israel Alone”, for example, discussed the idea that the Jewish state, in moments of decision, finds itself facing the world by itself. But the reality today shows this isolation is relative. The entire world is now watching, and the question on the table of this undeclared negotiation is: are we facing an open regional war, or are both sides looking for a way out that returns things to how they were just 24 hours ago, but with a new balance of power?

In discussion circles here in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, we focus on the most important point: the Israel-Iran proxy war is no longer a proxy war. It's become direct. And this carries within it both opportunities and risks. For us in the region, the relative calm we're experiencing isn't disconnected from what's happening; it's the result of a careful reading of the situation. The UAE, from the start, has built its strategy on the principle of wise neutrality, but this neutrality doesn't mean absence. Messages are being sent quietly and publicly: we want stability, we want sea lanes to remain open, and we don't want this conflict to become an outlet for settling larger regional scores.

If you want to understand where things are headed, look at three specific points:

• The Ceiling of Iranian Demands: The five conditions emerging from closed circles in Tehran aren't just for negotiation; they're to test the other side's seriousness. The demands include a complete halt to attacks and guarantees that Iranian positions in Syria won't be targeted. This brings us back to the proxy arena we thought we had moved beyond.
• American Military Posturing: Unprecedented movements of additional U.S. forces in the region were clear to observers. This isn't a sign of imminent war, but a dual deterrence message: aimed at both Iran and Israel. Washington doesn't want the circle to widen on the eve of sensitive elections.
• The Language of the Markets: Oil prices haven't skyrocketed despite the tension. This suggests that major investors in the region are reading the most likely scenario: a limited war of attrition followed by exhausting negotiations, not an all-out confrontation. The market here is savvy, and understands that no one wants to burn all their bridges.

In conclusion, from my ten years of experience covering this file, I can say that the current moment carries a great paradox: the biggest danger isn't in the strike that happened, but in miscalculating the next step. Tehran knows that Tel Aviv is under domestic pressure to achieve "clear deterrence," and Tel Aviv knows that Tehran won't accept losing the instruments of power it has carefully built over two decades. Negotiations, even through mediators, are now happening in the operations room, not the meeting room. The coming days will determine whether we read this chapter as another episode in a long book, or as a pivotal chapter that completely redraws the map of the Middle East.