FTSE MIB braced for a stormy Monday: Resistance levels and Wall Street calling the shots
Here we go again. After a weekend spent mulling over Friday's closes, Monday is shaping up to be an uphill battle for the FTSE MIB. Futures are speaking clearly this morning: sentiment on Wall Street has cooled, and the Milanese list, as per usual, is first in line to feel the chill. The session on 2 March won't be one where you can just sit back and watch. You need to be on top of the levels, every square metre of them.
Last Thursday, some were daring to predict a recovery. The banks were holding up, energy was lending a hand, and it seemed like Piazza Affari might break away from the European chorus. Then, overnight in the US, the hammer came down. US macro data came in hotter than expected, and the Fed hawks started croaking again. The result? US markets closed in the red, and the future on our index had to price it all in at once. My phone was ringing by 7:30 AM: "What's the play?" You watch the levels, you wait for the first quarter-hour, and then you decide.
Levels to watch on the future today
When it comes to the FTSE MIB future, you can't be too precise. In the coming hours, all eyes will be on two price bands that were pivotal in previous sessions:
- Support: 34,000 points (first line of defence), then 33,800 points (critical zone; a breach here would open the door to testing February's lows).
- Resistance: 34,500 points (the level to overcome for any real recovery), 34,700 points (where significant sellers emerged on Thursday).
An opening below 34,100 would likely trigger stop-losses and aggressive short positions, while holding above 34,300 could attract those buyers who stayed on the sidelines on Friday. The first quarter-hour will be decisive.
The weight of Wall Street (and upcoming data)
You can't talk about the FTSE MIB without looking at the States. On Friday, US markets closed in the red, wiping out the week's gains and casting a long shadow over European futures. Comments from Fed officials, still concerned about services inflation, have reignited the debate on rates. For Piazza Affari, which has been trading for months on expectations of imminent cuts, it's a cold shower. And keep an eye on the calendar: this week brings US employment data and the ISM manufacturing index – two potential curveballs ready to explode just as our index searches for direction.
Three moves to watch today
Beyond the numbers, though, the narratives matter. Here are three situations I'm personally following on the trading floor:
- The banks' rebound: Unicredit and Intesa are the real thermometer. They tried to rev their engines on Thursday, but faltered on Friday. If they hold recent lows today, the basket holds up. If they breach them, the FTSE MIB slides with them.
- Energy's defence: Eni closed the week with interesting order flow. Crude is slightly up, and there's chatter of possible dividend-driven buying. One to watch.
- Industrials' moves: Stellantis and Pirelli are coming off heavy sessions. If selling hits the automotive sector, the whole list will feel the knock-on effect. A contact of mine on a trading desk mentioned that some were already lightening their loads on Friday afternoon.
My view for the next few hours
I believe it will all be decided in the first ninety minutes today. If the FTSE MIB future holds support at 34,000, we could see an attempt at a technical bounce, perhaps a weak one, but at least enough to avoid a meltdown. If, on the other hand, Wall Street continues to transmit pessimism via pre-market trading, brace yourselves for a session in the red with possible extensions towards 33,800. This isn't the time to be a hero: better to wait for the market to pick a side, and only then position yourself cautiously.
In such an uncertain climate, having access to real-time analysis tools and targeted advice support makes the difference between riding the wave and getting swept away. Those who follow the FTSE MIB consistently know this: patience and preparation pay off more than speed.