FTSE MIB, a Heated Monday: Resistance Levels and Wall Street Call the Shots
Here we go again. And after a weekend spent mulling over Friday's closes, Monday is shaping up to be an uphill battle for the FTSE MIB. Futures speak volumes this morning: Wall Street sentiment has cooled, and the Milan list, as usual, is first in line to feel the sting. The March 2nd session won't be one where you can sit back and watch. You need to be on top of the levels, every square meter of them.
Last Thursday, some were daring to hope for a recovery. The banks were holding up, energy was lending a hand, and it seemed like Piazza Affari might break away from the broader European trend. Then, overnight in the US, the hammer dropped. US macro data came in hotter than expected, and the Fed hawks started squawking again. The result? US indices closed in the red, and the future on our index had to price it all in at once. My phone was ringing by 7:30 AM: "What's the play?" We watch the levels, wait for the first quarter-hour, and then decide.
Levels to Watch on the Future Today
When it comes to the FTSE MIB future, you can't be too precise. In the coming hours, keep your eyes on two price bands that have been key in previous sessions:
- Support: 34,000 points (first line of defence), then 33,800 points (critical zone; if breached, it could open the door to testing February lows).
- Resistance: 34,500 points (the hurdle to clear for any real recovery), 34,700 points (where significant sellers stepped in on Thursday).
A start below 34,100 would likely trigger stop-losses and aggressive short positions, while holding above 34,300 could attract those buyers who stayed on the sidelines Friday. The first quarter-hour will be decisive.
The Weight of Wall Street (and Upcoming Data)
You can't talk about the FTSE MIB without looking at the States. On Friday, US indices closed in the red, wiping out the week's gains and casting a long shadow over European futures. Comments from Fed officials, still concerned about services inflation, have reignited the debate on rates. For Piazza Affari, which has been riding for months on expectations of imminent cuts, it's a cold shower. And keep an eye on the calendar: this week brings US employment data and the ISM manufacturing index, two landmines ready to go off just as our index tries to find direction.
Three Moves to Watch Today
Beyond the numbers, though, the stories matter. Here are three situations I'm personally tracking from the trading floor:
- The bank bounce: Unicredit and Intesa are the real thermometer. Thursday they tried to warm up the engines; Friday they misfired. If they hold recent lows today, the basket holds up. If they breach them, the FTSE MIB slips with them.
- Energy defence: Eni closed the week with some interesting order flow. Oil is slightly up, and there's chatter about possible dividend-driven buying. One to watch.
- Industrial moves: Stellantis and Pirelli are coming off heavy sessions. If selling hits the automotive sector again, the whole list will feel the knock-on effect. A contact of mine on the trading floor mentioned that someone was already lightening positions on Friday afternoon.
My View for the Next Few Hours
I believe today's session will be decided in the first ninety minutes. If the FTSE MIB future holds support at 34,000, we could see an attempted technical bounce, maybe a weak one, but at least enough to avoid a collapse. If, however, Wall Street continues to transmit pessimism via pre-market action, brace yourselves for a session in the red with possible extensions towards 33,800. This isn't the time to be a hero: better to wait for the market to pick a side, and only then position yourself with caution.
In such an uncertain environment, having access to real-time analysis tools and the support of targeted advice makes the difference between riding the wave and getting swamped. Those who follow the FTSE MIB consistently know this: patience and preparation pay off more than speed.