FTSE MIB fires up for Monday: resistance levels and Wall Street calling the shots
Here we go again. After a weekend spent mulling over Friday's closes, Monday is shaping up to be a real uphill climb for the FTSE MIB. Futures this morning are crystal clear: Wall Street's mood has cooled, and the Milan list, as usual, is copping it right in the face. The March 2 session won't be one where you can just sit back and watch. You've got to be on top of the levels, square metre by square metre.
Last Thursday, a few people were tipping a recovery. The banks were holding up, energy was lending a hand, and it looked like Piazza Affari might break away from the European pack. Then, overnight in the US, the hammer came down. US macro data came in hotter than expected, and the Fed hawks started squawking again. The result? US markets closed in the red, and the future on our index had to price it all in at once. My phone was ringing by 7:30: "What's the play?" You watch the levels, you wait for the first quarter-hour, and then you decide.
The levels to watch on the future today
When it comes to the FTSE MIB future, you can never be too precise. In the next few hours, keep your eyes peeled on two price bands that have been front and centre in recent sessions:
- Support: 34,000 points (first line of defence), then 33,800 points (critical zone; if breached, it opens the door to testing February's lows).
- Resistance: 34,500 points (the hurdle to clear for any real recovery to be on the cards), 34,700 points (where major sellers came through on Thursday).
An opening below 34,100 would likely trigger stop losses and aggressive short positions, while holding above 34,300 could tempt those buyers who stayed on the sidelines on Friday. The first quarter-hour will be decisive.
The weight of Wall Street (and the data ahead)
You can't talk about the FTSE MIB without looking Stateside. On Friday, US markets closed in the red, wiping out the week's gains and casting a long shadow over European futures. Comments from Fed officials, still worried about services inflation, have reignited the debate on rates. For Piazza Affari, which has been riding high for months on expectations of imminent cuts, it's a cold shower. And keep an eye on the calendar: this week brings US employment figures and the ISM manufacturing index – two live mines ready to explode just as our index is searching for direction.
Three moves to watch today
Beyond the numbers, though, the stories matter. Here are three situations I'm personally following on the trading floor:
- The bank bounce: Unicredit and Intesa are the real thermometer. On Thursday they tried to fire up the engines; on Friday they misfired. If they hold recent lows today, the basket holds up. If they break through them, the FTSE MIB will slide right along with them.
- Energy's defence: Eni closed the week with some interesting orders. Crude is up slightly, and there's chatter about possible dividend-driven buying. One to watch.
- Industrial moves: Stellantis and Pirelli are coming off heavy sessions. If selling hits the automotive sector, the list will feel the cascade effect. A contact of mine on the trading floor mentioned that by Friday afternoon, some players were already lightening their loads.
My view for the next few hours
I reckon today, it'll all be decided in the first ninety minutes. If the FTSE MIB future holds support at 34,000, we could see a technical bounce attempt, maybe a weak one, but at least enough to avoid a collapse. If, on the other hand, Wall Street keeps transmitting pessimism via pre-market trading, then brace yourself for a session in the red with possible extensions towards 33,800. Now's not the time to be a hero: better to wait for the market to pick a side, and only then position yourself with caution.
In such an uncertain environment, having access to real-time analysis tools and targeted advice is what separates riding the wave from getting wiped out by it. Those who follow the FTSE MIB consistently know: patience and preparation pay off more than speed.