Eni shares: why the six-legged dog stock can keep running despite banking turmoil

If you've been keeping an eye on Eni shares these past few weeks while also watching the moves in the banking world, you might have noticed a curious phenomenon: while Piazza Affari is being shaken up by the battle for the Banco BPM board and Credit Agricole's manoeuvres, the six-legged dog stock seems to be moving on an almost parallel track, showing a resilience that deserves a closer look. That's no coincidence, and today I want to explain why.

The banking sector noise and the effect on Eni

In recent weeks, the banking M&A scene has grabbed all the attention: Credit Agricole counting its seats on the new Banco BPM board, the upcoming board meeting to finalise the slate, and the usual whispers of mergers in the background. All of this creates volatility, especially for stocks like Banco BPM itself and, in a way, doValue, which feels the knock-on effects. But the long-term investor knows that the real thermometer of the Italian market, at least in terms of market cap and weight in the real economy, is still energy. And here, Eni shares are the main barometer.

While the banks squabble over board seats (and strategies that are sometimes too opaque), Eni keeps churning out profits and paying dividends. The question many are asking is: will this divergence last, or will the energy stock get sucked into the banking sector's vortex? My view is that Eni's fundamentals are now stronger than they've ever been, and the banking battle, while important, remains a side event for those betting on oil and the energy transition.

Eni's fundamentals: what the numbers tell us

Those who've followed the stock for years know that Eni is no longer just the oil company it once was. Today we're talking about a business structured across multiple areas: from traditional exploration to green chemistry (Versalis), from renewables (Plenitude) to bio-refining. And the results are showing. You don't need to quote official reports: just look at the free cash flow generated over the past year and their ability to maintain a sustainable dividend even in lower oil price scenarios.

Here's why, in my opinion, Eni shares represent a relative safe haven in this transition period:

• Solid dividend: management has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining generous shareholder returns, including through buyback plans. In a climate of uncertain interest rates, having a reliable dividend makes all the difference.
• Attractive valuation: after recent corrections, the price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to levels that have historically presented good entry points.
• Energy diversification: the growth of Plenitude and renewable activities frees the stock from exclusive exposure to crude oil prices, broadening its potential investor base.
• Macro picture: with oil prices holding in a comfortable range (between US$70 and US$80) and global demand showing no signs of collapsing, the cash keeps flowing.

Banco BPM, Credit Agricole and doValue: three different stories, one common lesson

Take the case of Banco BPM. Next week, the board will meet to finalise the slate for board renewal, with Credit Agricole wanting to grab as many seats as possible. It's a classic power struggle, which usually leads to uncertainty and a bumpy ride for the stock. Anyone investing in a bank in the middle of a corporate brawl has to factor in turbulence and potential strategic delays.

Similarly, doValue feels the knock-on effects: the more banks reorganise, the more distressed debt is managed differently, and the stock suffers. Eni, on the other hand, is untouched by these boardroom games. Its governance is stable, its alliances are clear, and its industrial path is set. In a well-constructed portfolio, this difference can be the line between an investment that lets you sleep easy and one that wakes you up every morning with a new piece of speculation.

How to approach Eni shares today

Personally, I believe the current sideways phase for the stock (the one that makes those chasing quick gains turn up their noses) is actually the best time to accumulate. There's no need to chase a rally; you need to position yourself when the market is distracted by other things. And right now, the market is very distracted by the banks.

If we look at the trading volumes over the last few days, we see that trading in Eni shares is steady but not excessive: that means there's interest, but not the frenzy typical of a bubble. To me, that's a sign of structural demand, probably from institutions and super funds looking for returns with a moderate risk profile. For those wanting to get in now, the ideal approach is to aim for a medium-to-long term horizon, perhaps using volatility to average down your entry price a little.

Conclusions: Eni or not Eni?

The answer, for anyone with one eye on returns and the other on stability, is yes. Eni shares aren't the stock that'll triple in a year, but they're the classic workhorse in a well-balanced portfolio: they run smoothly, pay a dividend, and when the wind changes, they hold up better than most. With the banking brawl underway, having a stock like Eni means sleeping more soundly, knowing your investment is anchored to the real economy and not the power games in the boardrooms.

And you? Are you looking at the six-legged dog stock, or do you prefer to stay on the sidelines and watch the banks' game? I've already made my choice: I keep buying Eni whenever the price dips below €14. A boring strategy, but one that historically pays off.