Eni shares: why the six-legged dog stock can run despite banking turbulence

If you've been keeping an eye on Eni shares these past few weeks while also glancing at movements in the banking world, you'll have noticed a curious phenomenon: while Piazza Affari is shaken by the battle for the Banco BPM board and Credit Agricole's moves, the six-legged dog stock seems to be moving on an almost parallel track, showing a resilience that deserves closer examination. That's no coincidence, and today I want to explain why.

The banking system's background noise and the effect on Eni

In recent weeks, banking sector manoeuvres have captured attention: Credit Agricole counting its seats on the new Banco BPM board, the upcoming board meeting to finalise the list, and the usual whispers of mergers in the background. All this creates volatility, particularly for stocks like Banco BPM itself and, in some ways, doValue, which is affected indirectly. But the long-term investor knows that the true barometer of the Italian market, at least in terms of market capitalisation and weight in the real economy, remains energy. And here, Eni shares are the main gauge.

While the banks squabble over board seats (and sometimes overly opaque strategies), Eni continues to churn out profits and pay dividends. The question many are asking is: is this divergence set to last, or will the energy stock be sucked into the credit sector's vortex? My view is that Eni's fundamentals are now stronger than they've ever been, and that the banking game, however important, remains a side event for those betting on oil and the energy transition.

Eni's fundamentals: what the numbers tell us

Those who have followed the stock for years know that Eni is no longer just the oil company it once was. Today we're talking about a business structured across multiple areas: from traditional exploration to green chemicals (Versalis), from renewables (Plenitude) to bio-refining. And the results show. There's no need to cite official reports: just look at the free cash flow generated over the past year and the ability to maintain a sustainable dividend even in lower oil price scenarios.

That's why, in my view, Eni shares represent a relative safe haven in this transitional period:

• Solid dividend: management has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining generous shareholder returns, including through buyback plans. In a context of uncertain interest rates, having a guaranteed dividend makes all the difference.
• Attractive valuation: after recent corrections, the price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to levels that have historically represented good entry opportunities.
• Energy diversification: the growth of Plenitude and renewable activities removes the stock from exclusive exposure to crude oil prices, broadening the pool of potential investors.
• Macro scenario: with oil prices holding in a comfortable range (between $70 and $80) and global demand showing no signs of collapsing, cash continues to flow.

Banco BPM, Credit Agricole and doValue: three different stories, one common lesson

Take the case of Banco BPM. Next week the board will meet to finalise the list for board renewal, with Credit Agricole wanting to get its hands on as many seats as possible. It's a classic power struggle, which usually leads to uncertainty and erratic stock performance. Anyone investing in a bank amidst full-blown corporate turmoil must factor in upheaval and possible strategic delays.

Similarly, doValue is affected indirectly: the more banks reorganise, the more non-performing loans are managed differently, and the stock suffers as a result. Eni, however, remains detached from these behind-the-scenes games. Its governance is stable, its alliances are clear, and its industrial path is mapped out. In a well-constructed portfolio, this difference can be what separates an investment that lets you sleep soundly from one that wakes shareholders each morning to fresh speculation.

How to approach Eni shares today

Personally, I believe the current sideways phase for the stock (the kind that makes those seeking quick gains turn up their noses) is precisely the best time to accumulate. There's no need to chase the rally; you need to position yourself when the market is distracted by other things. And right now, the market is very distracted by the banks.

If we look at trading volumes over recent days, we see that Eni trades are sustained but without excess: that means there's interest, but not the frenzy typical of bubbles. To me, that's a sign of structural demand, probably from institutions and pension funds seeking returns with a moderate risk profile. For those looking to enter now, the ideal approach is to aim for a medium-to-long-term horizon, perhaps using volatility to slightly improve your average entry price.

Conclusions: Eni or not Eni?

The answer, for those with one eye on returns and the other on solidity, is yes. Eni shares aren't the stock that will triple in a year, but they're the classic workhorse in a well-balanced portfolio: they run without jerks, pay dividends, and when the wind turns, they hold up better than others. With the ongoing banking ruckus, having a stock like Eni means sleeping more soundly, knowing your investment is anchored to the real economy and not to power games in closed-door meetings.

And you—are you keeping an eye on the six-legged dog stock, or do you prefer to stay on the sidelines watching the banks' match? I've already made my choice: I keep buying Eni every time the price drops below €14. A boring strategy, but one that historically pays off.