Eni shares: Why the six-legged dog stock can run despite banking turbulence

If you've been keeping an eye on Eni shares these past few weeks while also watching the moves in the banking world, you might have noticed a curious phenomenon: while Piazza Affari is shaken by the battle for the Banco BPM board and Credit Agricole's maneuvers, the six-legged dog stock seems to be moving on a nearly parallel track, showing a resilience that deserves a closer look. That's no coincidence, and today I want to explain why.

The banking system's background noise and the effect on Eni

In recent weeks, the banking sector shake-up has captured everyone's attention: Credit Agricole counting seats on the new Banco BPM board, the upcoming board meeting to finalize the slate, and the usual whispers of mergers in the background. All of this creates volatility, especially for stocks like Banco BPM itself and, in some ways, doValue, which is indirectly affected. But the long-term investor knows that the true thermometer of the Italian market, at least in terms of market cap and weight in the real economy, remains energy. And here, Eni shares are the main barometer.

While banks squabble over board seats (and sometimes overly opaque strategies), Eni keeps churning out profits and paying dividends. The question many are asking is: will this divergence last, or will the energy stock get sucked into the credit sector's vortex? My view is that Eni's fundamentals are now more solid than they've ever been, and the banking battle, while important, remains a side event for those focused on oil and the energy transition.

Eni's fundamentals: What the numbers tell us

Those who have followed the stock for years know that Eni is no longer just the oil company it once was. Today, we're talking about a business structured across multiple sectors: from classic exploration to green chemistry (Versalis), from renewables (Plenitude) to bio-refining. And the results show it. You don't need to cite official reports: just look at the free cash flow generated over the last year and the ability to maintain a sustainable dividend even in lower oil price scenarios.

That's why, in my opinion, Eni shares represent a relative safe haven in this transition period:

• Solid dividend: management has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining generous shareholder remuneration, including through buyback plans. In a context of uncertain rates, having a reliable dividend makes a difference.
• Attractive valuation: after recent corrections, the price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to levels that have historically represented good entry points.
• Energy diversification: the growth of Plenitude and renewable activities removes the stock from exclusive exposure to crude oil prices, broadening the pool of potential investors.
• Macro scenario: with oil prices holding in a comfortable range (between $70 and $80) and global demand showing no signs of collapsing, cash flow continues.

Banco BPM, Credit Agricole, and doValue: Three different stories, one common lesson

Take the case of Banco BPM. Next week, the board will meet to finalize the slate for board renewal, with Credit Agricole looking to secure as many seats as possible. It's a classic power struggle, which usually leads to uncertainty and choppy stock performance. Anyone investing in a bank in the middle of corporate turmoil has to factor in volatility and potential strategic delays.

Similarly, doValue is indirectly affected: the more banks reorganize, the more non-performing loans are managed differently, and the stock feels the impact. Eni, however, is removed from these internal power games. Its governance is stable, its alliances are clear, and its industrial path is set. This difference, in a well-constructed portfolio, can be the difference between an investment that lets you sleep soundly and one that wakes shareholders up every morning with new speculation.

How to approach Eni shares today

Personally, I believe the current sideways phase of the stock (the kind that turns up noses of those looking for a quick pop) is precisely the best time to accumulate. There's no need to chase a rally; you need to position yourself when the market is distracted by other things. And right now, the market is very distracted by the banks.

If we look at trading volumes in recent days, we see that trading in Eni shares is steady but without excesses: it means there's interest, but not the frenzy typical of bubbles. To me, that's a sign of structural demand, likely from institutions and pension funds seeking returns with a moderate risk profile. The ideal approach for someone looking to get in now is to aim for a medium-to-long-term horizon, perhaps using volatility to average down the entry price a bit.

Conclusions: Eni or not Eni?

The answer, for those with one eye on returns and the other on solidity, is yes. Eni shares aren't the stock that will triple in a year, but they are the classic workhorse in a well-balanced portfolio: they run smoothly, pay a dividend, and when the wind shifts, they hold up better than others. With the ongoing banking turmoil, holding a stock like Eni means sleeping more soundly, knowing your investment is tied to the real economy and not to power struggles in boardrooms.

And you? Are you looking at the six-legged dog stock, or do you prefer to stay on the sidelines and watch the banking game? I've already made my choice: I keep buying Eni every time the price dips below €14. A boring strategy, but one that historically pays off.