FTSE MIB, a fiery Monday: resistance levels and Wall Street call the shots
Here we go again. After a weekend spent mulling over Friday's closes, Monday is shaping up to be an uphill battle for the FTSE MIB. Futures were clear this morning: Wall Street's mood has soured, and the Milan market, as usual, is copping it first. The 2 March session won't be one where you can sit back and watch. You need to be on your game, watching the levels square metre by square metre.
Last Thursday, some were daring to hope for a recovery. The banks were holding up, energy was lending a hand, and it seemed like Piazza Affari might break away from the broader European trend. Then, overnight in the US, the hammer dropped. US macro data came in hotter than expected, and the Fed hawks started squawking again. The result? US markets closed in the red, and the future on our index had to price it all in at once. My phone was ringing by 7:30 am: "What's the play?" You watch the levels, wait for the first quarter-hour, and then decide.
Key levels to watch on the future today
When talking about the FTSE MIB future, you can never be too precise. In the coming hours, all eyes are on two price zones that have been front and centre in recent sessions:
- Support: 34,000 points (first line of defence), then 33,800 points (critical area; if breached, it opens the door to a test of February's lows).
- Resistance: 34,500 points (the hurdle to clear for any real recovery), 34,700 points (where significant sellers were active on Thursday).
An opening below 34,100 would likely trigger stop-losses and aggressive short positions, while holding above 34,300 could tempt those buyers who stayed on the sidelines Friday. The first quarter-hour will be decisive.
Wall Street's weight (and the data ahead)
You can't talk about the FTSE MIB without looking across the pond. Friday saw US markets close in the red, wiping out the week's gains and casting a long shadow over European futures. Comments from Fed officials, still worried about services inflation, have reignited the debate on interest rates. For Piazza Affari, which has been riding high for months on expectations of imminent rate cuts, it's a cold shower. And keep an eye on the calendar: this week brings US employment data and the ISM manufacturing index – two live wires primed to go off just as our index tries to find direction.
Three moves to watch today
Beyond the numbers, though, it's the stories that count. Here are three situations I'm personally tracking from the trading floor:
- The bank rebound: Unicredit and Intesa are the real thermometer. They tried to fire up the engines on Thursday, then misfired on Friday. If they hold recent lows today, the basket will hold. If they break through them, the FTSE MIB slides with them.
- Energy plays defence: Eni closed the week with some interesting order flow. Crude is slightly up, and there's chatter about possible dividend-driven buying. One to watch.
- Moves in industrials: Stellantis and Pirelli are coming off heavy sessions. If selling hits the auto sector, the whole market will feel the knock-on effect. A contact of mine on the trading floor mentioned that someone was already lightening their load on Friday afternoon.
My view for the next few hours
I reckon it'll all be decided in the first ninety minutes today. If the FTSE MIB future holds support at 34,000, we might see a technical rebound attempt, maybe weak, but at least enough to avoid a collapse. If, however, Wall Street continues to send a pessimistic vibe via pre-market trading, then buckle up for a session in the red, with a possible extension towards 33,800. This isn't the time to be a hero: better to wait for the market to pick a side, and only then position yourself cautiously.
In such uncertain times, having access to real-time analysis tools and targeted advice is the difference between riding the wave and getting wiped out. Anyone who follows the FTSE MIB regularly knows this: patience and preparation pay off more than speed.