FTSE MIB, Heated Monday: Resistance Levels and Wall Street Set the Tone
Here we go again. After a weekend spent mulling over Friday's closures, Monday is shaping up to be an uphill climb for the FTSE MIB. Futures this morning are crystal clear: Wall Street's mood has cooled, and the Milanese list, as usual, is the first to bear the brunt. The 2 March session won't be one where you can just sit back and watch. You need to be on top of the levels, square metre by square metre.
Last Thursday, some dared to hope for a recovery. The banks were holding up, energy was lending a hand, and it seemed like Piazza Affari could decouple from the European chorus. Then, during the US night, the hammer dropped. US macro data came in hotter than expected, and the Fed hawks started squawking again. The result? US markets closed in the red, and the future on our index had to price it all in at once. My phone was ringing by 7:30 AM: "What's the play?" We look at the levels, wait for the first 15 minutes, and then decide.
Levels to Watch on the Future Today
When talking about the FTSE MIB future, you can never be too precise. In the coming hours, all eyes are on two price bands that were key in previous sessions too:
- Support: 34,000 points (first line of defence), then 33,800 points (critical zone, if broken it would open the door to a test of February's lows).
- Resistance: 34,500 points (the wall to overcome for a real recovery), 34,700 points (where significant sellers stepped in on Thursday).
A start below 34,100 would likely trigger stop-losses and aggressive short positions, while a hold above 34,300 could attract those buyers who stayed on the sidelines Friday. The first 15 minutes will be decisive.
The Weight of Wall Street (And the Upcoming Data)
You can't talk about the FTSE MIB without looking at the States. On Friday, US markets closed in the red, wiping out the week's gains and casting a long shadow over European futures. Comments from Fed officials, still worried about services inflation, have reignited the debate on rates. For Piazza Affari, which has been riding for months on expectations of imminent cuts, it's a cold shower. And keep an eye on the calendar: this week brings the US employment data and the ISM manufacturing index, two ticking time bombs ready to go off just as our index searches for direction.
Three Moves to Watch Today
Beyond the numbers, though, the stories matter. Here are three situations I'm personally following on the trading floor:
- The Bank Bounce: Unicredit and Intesa are the real thermometer. On Thursday they tried to warm up, on Friday they fizzled. If they hold recent lows today, the basket holds. If they break through them, the FTSE MIB slides with them.
- Energy's Defence: Eni closed the week with interesting orders. Crude is slightly up, and there's talk of possible dividend-driven buying. One to watch.
- Industrial Moves: Stellantis and Pirelli are coming off heavy sessions. If selling hits the automotive sector, the whole list will feel the cascading effect. A contact of mine on the trading floor mentioned that some were already lightening positions on Friday afternoon.
My View for the Next Few Hours
I believe today will all be decided in the first ninety minutes. If the FTSE MIB future holds support at 34,000, we might see an attempt at a technical bounce, perhaps weak, but at least enough to avoid a crash. If, however, Wall Street continues to transmit pessimism via pre-market trading, brace yourselves for a session in the red with possible extensions towards 33,800. This is no time to be a hero: better to wait for the market to pick a side, and only then position yourself with caution.
In such an uncertain context, having access to real-time analysis tools and the support of targeted advice makes the difference between riding the wave and getting wiped out. Those who follow the FTSE MIB consistently know this: patience and preparation pay off more than speed.