Italian Stock Exchange: Why the Strong March 2026 Rally is Just the Start of a New Phase
If you've turned on your screen in these first few days of March, you'll have noticed something big is moving beneath the surface of Piazza Affari. It's not just the positive sign on the lists, it's the way the market is moving. The volumes, folks, the volumes. After weeks of uncertain trading and timid handovers, the turnover has accelerated in a way we haven't seen for months. Anyone who has been following the Italian Stock Exchange for at least twenty years immediately recognises the symptom: when real money moves, it leaves its mark.
The figure that tells the story of the turnaround
Let's look at the numbers from the recent sessions, the ones that really count. On Friday, 27 February, the daily trading turnover approached levels usually seen only during the big year-end rushes. It wasn't an isolated last gasp: on Monday, 2 March, the Ftse Mib continued to run, supported by buying flows coming mainly from abroad. Those who had built up short positions in previous weeks – when the market seemed uncertain, especially after the session on 20 February – had to cover. The old adage "the trend is your friend" transforms here into "volume is king".
The drivers of this rally
Let's try to isolate the factors that are pushing the Stock Exchange to these levels. It's not a single spurt, but a mature combination:
- The banking sector is leading the charge. Italian institutions, after years of cleaning up their balance sheets, are presenting themselves with still attractive multiples and impressive dividend yields. Anglo-Saxon funds, which stayed away until January, are now returning with substantial orders.
- Utilities and energy are holding firm. In a context of slightly falling rates and controlled inflation, large-cap stocks offer both refuge and yield.
- The repositioning of institutional investors. The Italian Stock Exchange is being seen as a "safe haven" within the Old Continent, thanks to an improving debt-to-GDP ratio and a political stability that, for once, isn't scaring the markets.
Keep an eye on corrections, but the structure is changing
Attention: I don't want to paint a picture of a rampant bull market. Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down, and there will be profit-taking even on these days. But the difference, compared to a month ago, is the depth of the order book. The high turnover means we are not facing a flash in the pan from retail traders, but genuine medium-term bets. The strong hands are building positions.
Those who follow the market from the inside know that certain passages need interpretation. The sharp increase in trading recorded on 26 February, for example, coincided with the full implementation of accumulation plans by large pension funds. It's no coincidence that the most liquid stocks, those in the main basket, have performed better than small caps.
Outlook: now the interesting part begins
If I had to make a bet, I'd say the second quarter will open with a more selective Italian Stock Exchange. Until yesterday, you could just buy the index and sleep soundly. Today, you'll need to pick the right horses. The sectors that have run the most might give way to comebacks in more cyclical areas, like automotive and industrial machinery, which have lagged behind so far.
One thing is certain: liquidity is there, and plenty of it. And when liquidity meets confidence, valuations can push beyond reasonableness. For now, we're in the phase of reasonableness, but all eyes are on the next quarterly reports. If earnings confirm the momentum, get ready to see new all-time highs.
And remember: in the stock market, the winner isn't the one who times the market, but the one who understands the direction. And the direction, today, is clearly north.