Mojtaba Khamenei on the Threshold of Leadership: Will the Revolutionary Guard Hand Over the "Key" of Iran to the Late Supreme Leader's Son?

The strike targeting the Assembly of Experts building in the city of Qom hours ago was not just a fleeting military raid amid escalating tensions. From my perspective, that very moment was the actual declaration of the end of an era and the beginning of another, darker and more obscure one. As Israeli missiles rained down on the site, the assembled members—or those who remained—were on the verge of deciding the fate of the most powerful position in the Islamic Republic. Leaks emerging from Tehran and London all point in one direction: Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, is the man behind whom the Revolutionary Guard has thrown its considerable weight to succeed his father.

The "Shadow Hand" Comes to Light: Why Mojtaba Specifically?

I have been following the file of Mojtaba Shirazi (a reference to his family lineage) for years, writing about him as the "shadow man" who manages his mother's economic empire and oversees the appointments of senior security chiefs. What happened in recent days was no surprise to a true observer of the Iranian scene. The surprise was in the speed with which the cards were revealed. As soon as Ali Khamenei was assassinated, the conversation shifted from the "Assembly of Experts" as a constitutional body to a "Council under Guard" where Meysam Motiei and other Guard loyalists are the true godfathers. The Revolutionary Guard knows that any candidate other than Mojtaba would open the door to an ideological conflict over the foundations of the revolution, while Mojtaba ensures the continuation of the "system" in the name of both religion and money.

The Qom Strike: A Desperate Attempt to Turn the Tables?

The Israeli strike was not random; it was a precise targeting of the process for the upcoming election of Iran's Supreme Leader. According to sources familiar with closed-door proceedings, the building in Qom was in the midst of vote counting or final consultations when the aircraft struck. Tehran denied that the main headquarters was targeted, describing it as "old and secondary." But satellite imagery and video footage obtained by the research team confirm the exact opposite.

Here's the crux of the matter: Why would Israel bomb an electoral building if it were empty? And why would Tel Aviv proudly announce that it disrupted the counting process? The answer is simple: because the timing of the succession was the regime's "Achilles' heel," and Israel tried to exploit this gap. But it seems Tehran was faster; the announcement of Mojtaba's selection came under immediate field and political pressure to preempt any chaos that Israel or even the internal opposition, represented by the reformist Hassan Khomeini trend, might exploit.

What Does the Arrival of the "Supreme Leader's Son" to Leadership Mean?

If the news is confirmed in the coming hours—and I bet it's only a matter of time—Iran is entering an entirely new phase. The transfer of power from father to son transforms the system from "Velayat-e Faqih" (Guardianship of the Jurist) to "Velayat-e Family" (Family Guardianship). For me, this is a radical shift. It's no longer about the senior ayatollahs who constitute the "electoral college," but a security-military front run by a single family under a religious cloak. Herein lies the major commercial and investment opportunity, so to speak, for the Gulf states, especially the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:

• Geopolitically: Greater Iranian intransigence on the nuclear file and in negotiations with the West, meaning more regional escalation that could rearrange energy alliances.
• Economically: The continued control of the "Mojtaba network" over vital sectors (from oil to contracting) means that any breakthrough with Iran will be contingent on the approval of this private network, not just the central government.
• On the security level: The Revolutionary Guard, which pushed Mojtaba forward, will become the undisputed decision-maker, increasing the likelihood of indirect confrontations with Israel via proxies.

One of the most striking details was the leak from Israeli decision-making circles immediately after the strike, which read: "It doesn't matter who is elected today; their fate is sealed. Only the Iranian people will choose their next leader." This is not just propaganda; it's an admission that Israel sees this inheritance as an opportunity to deepen the rift between the people and the regime. In response, I expect Tehran's reaction to be accelerating the nuclear program as a lever of pressure and internal legitimacy.

Conclusion: We Are Facing an Inherited "Republic of Fear"

In the end, it seems that Mojtaba Khamenei will don his father's robe, but the burden will be heavier. The regional landscape is ablaze, the Iranian economy is on the brink, and the people on the Persian streets are exhausted. For us in the region, especially in Saudi Arabia, this means we will be dealing with a more rigid and less flexible system, as it lacks even the traditional legitimacy his father enjoyed. The Assembly of Experts election ended before it began, and all that remains is to watch how the "son" manages his father's legacy in a land groaning under the weight of sanctions and missiles.