Mojtaba Khamenei on the Brink of Leadership: Is the Revolutionary Guard Handing the "Keys" of Iran to the Late Supreme Leader's Son?

The strike that targeted the Qom headquarters of the Assembly of Experts just hours ago was not merely another military raid in the midst of escalating tensions. From my perspective, that very moment was the de facto declaration of the end of one era and the start of another, far darker and more uncertain one. As Israeli missiles rained down on the site, the assembled members—or those who remained—were on the verge of deciding the fate of the most powerful position in the Islamic Republic. Leaks emerging from both Tehran and London all point in one direction: Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, is the man the Revolutionary Guard has thrown its considerable weight behind to succeed his father.

The "Shadowy Hand" Steps into the Light: Why Mojtaba?

I have been following the file on Mojtaba Shirazi (a reference to his family lineage) for years, writing about him as the "man in the shadows" who manages his mother's economic empire and oversees the appointments of senior security chiefs. What has happened in recent days came as no surprise to a true observer of the Iranian scene. The surprise was the speed with which the cards were laid on the table. The moment Ali Khamenei was assassinated, the conversation shifted from the Assembly of Experts as a constitutional body to an "Assembly under guard," where figures like Meysam Motiee and other Guard loyalists are the true power brokers. The Revolutionary Guard knows that any candidate other than Mojtaba would open the door to an ideological battle over the very foundations of the revolution, whereas Mojtaba guarantees the continuation of the "system" in the name of both religion and money.

The Qom Bombing: A Desperate Attempt to Turn the Tables?

The Israeli strike was not random; it was a precise targeting of the process for Iran's next Supreme Leader election. According to sources familiar with what was happening behind closed doors, the building in Qom was in the middle of vote counting or final consultations when the aircraft struck. Tehran denied that the main headquarters was the target, describing it as "old and a secondary site." However, satellite imagery and video footage obtained by our research team confirm the exact opposite.

Here's the crux of the matter: why would Israel bomb an electoral building if it were empty? And why would Tel Aviv proudly announce that it had disrupted the counting process? The answer is simple: because the timing of the succession was the system's "Achilles' heel," and Israel tried to exploit this window of opportunity. But Tehran appears to have been faster; the announcement of Mojtaba's selection was driven by immediate military and political pressure to pre-empt any chaos that Israel or even the internal opposition, represented by the reformist current of Hassan Khomeini, could exploit.

What Does the Rise of the "Leader's Son" Mean?

If the news is confirmed in the coming hours—and I'd bet it's only a matter of time—then Iran is entering a completely new phase. The transfer of power from father to son transforms the system from "Velayat-e Faqih" (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) to "Velayat-e Family" (Guardianship of the Family). For me, this is a radical shift. It's no longer about the consensus of senior clerics, but about a security-military front run by a single family under a religious guise. Herein lies the major commercial and investment opportunity, so to speak, for the Gulf states, led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:

• Geopolitically: Greater Iranian intransigence on the nuclear file and in negotiations with the West, meaning further regional escalation that could reshuffle energy alliances.
• Economically: The continued control of the "Mojtaba network" over vital sectors (from oil to contracting) means any opening with Iran will be contingent on the approval of this private network, not just the central government.
• On the security front: The Revolutionary Guard, which pushed Mojtaba forward, will become the undisputed top authority, increasing the likelihood of indirect confrontations with Israel via proxies.

One of the most striking details was the leak that emerged from the corridors of Israeli decision-making immediately after the strike, which essentially said: "It doesn't matter who is elected today; their fate is sealed. Only the Iranian people will choose their next leader." This isn't just propaganda; it's an admission that Israel sees this hereditary succession as an opportunity to deepen the rift between the people and the regime. In response, I expect Tehran's reaction will be to accelerate its nuclear programme as a pressure card and a source of internal legitimacy.

The Bottom Line: We Are Facing an Inherited "Republic of Fear"

In the end, it seems Mojtaba Khamenei will don his father's robes, but the burden will be far heavier. The regional landscape is ablaze, the Iranian economy is on the brink of collapse, and the people on the Persian street are exhausted. For us in the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, this means we will be dealing with a system that is more hardline and less flexible because it lacks even the traditional legitimacy his father once enjoyed. The Assembly of Experts election was over before it began, and all that remains is to watch how the "son" manages his father's inheritance in a land groaning under the weight of sanctions and missiles.